July 2026 marked a clear reversal of June's decline, with GO prices tracing a V-shaped path — soft in early July, firming to a peak in Week 30 (20–24 Jul), then easing into month-end. Total volume was 11.0 TWh across 161 trades over 21 active days, roughly 30% below June (15.7 TWh), reflecting typical summer-holiday thinning of activity. WSH remained dominant at 5.4 TWh (49% of volume). All renewable products traded in an unusually tight €1.30–1.77/MWh band, with the market offer-heavy at 54 offers versus 11 bids.
MARKET ACTIVITY
- 161 trades across 21 active days. Weekly trade counts were steady (27–42 per week), but volume was lumpy: Week 31 (27–29 Jul) led at 2.84 TWh despite only three trading days, while Week 30 was the lightest at 1.48 TWh.
- WSH: 76 trades, 5.4 TWh — the core liquidity instrument, roughly half of monthly volume. European (39 trades) and AIB GC (19 trades) origins dominated.
- Hydro (non-Nordic): 29 trades, 2.3 TWh, driven mainly by European origin. The most active non-WSH product this month.
- Nordic Hydro: 15 trades, 0.9 TWh, with Norwegian origin dominant (11 of 15 trades). Volume roughly a third of June's level.
- Renewable: 23 trades, 1.8 TWh. Pricing firmed notably in Week 29 (€1.621 w-avg) before easing.
- Wind, Solar, Nuclear: all quiet. Wind 8 trades (0.24 TWh), Solar just 3 trades (0.11 TWh), Nuclear 7 trades (0.31 TWh) at a flat €0.095–0.120/MWh.
- Offer-heavy market: 54 offers vs. 11 bids (4.9:1), a wider seller-skew than June (3.3:1), consistent with summer supply availability meeting thinner buy-side interest.
PRICE ACTION
- Prices traced a V-shape through the month, unlike June's steady decline. Most products softened in early July (Weeks 27–28), firmed to a Week 30 peak, then eased slightly into the final week.
- WSH: €1.368 (W27) → 1.444 (W28) → 1.488 (W29) → 1.579 (W30) → 1.464 (W31). A ~15% swing low-to-high, peaking mid-to-late month before easing back.
- Nordic Hydro: Followed the same arc, from €1.413 (W27) up to €1.629 (W30) then back to €1.474 (W31). Norwegian supply kept the range tight.
- Hydro (non-Nordic): Firmest of the products at the peak, rising from €1.383 (W27) to €1.583 (W30) and holding €1.531 into W31.
- Renewable: The most volatile week-to-week, spiking to €1.621 in W29 (on trades up to €1.77) before settling near €1.526.
- Wind, Solar: Limited volume; both traded flat in the €1.35–1.55 range with too few trades to establish a clear weekly trend.
- Nuclear: Stable and decoupled at €0.095–0.120/MWh, easing slightly from €0.120 early in the month to €0.100 by W29.
- Vintage curve: 2027 was the most liquid vintage (4.7 TWh), narrowly ahead of 2026 (3.9 TWh) — a shift forward along the curve versus prior months. Pricing was near-flat across vintages (mostly €1.44–1.60), with only a slight 2027–2028 premium over 2026, consistent with the compressed overall price range this month.
PRICE ACTION – North America
CROSS-REGIONAL DYNAMICS
- Norway continued to dominate Nordic Hydro supply (11 of 15 trades), consistent with its established role as the primary origin in the Nordic hub.
- European and AIB GC origins again dominated WSH and Hydro activity (WSH: Europe 39, AIB GC 19; Hydro: Europe 17), continuing the pan-European basket as the default instrument.
- Named national origins were sparse this month — only isolated France and Iceland WSH trades — reflecting the thinner summer market and a tilt toward standardized basket products over specific-origin certificates.
- Overall regional concentration was higher than in prior months, with the bulk of volume in Europe/AIB GC baskets and Norwegian hydro, and little of the origin diversification (Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden) seen in May and June.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period covered by this monthly update.
