Summary
TTF next-day averaged €87.30/MWh in October, up 15.2% on September – a fourth consecutive monthly rise – and closed at the month’s high of €105.13/MWh on 30 October, its highest since December 2022. Gulf LNG stayed cut off (QatarEnergy extended its force majeure to year-end), EU storage stalled just under 75% full, colder forecasts and Asian buying lifted demand, and unplanned Norwegian outages tightened supply.
Price action
TTF opened October at €73.56/MWh, little changed on September’s closing level of €73.83/MWh after a pullback from the €84.14/MWh peak on 14 September, dipped to a monthly low of €73.42/MWh on 5 October and then climbed without a down week. Colder forecasts for the second half of the month and stronger Asian buying, including China’s reported order to fill storage to maximum levels ahead of winter, drove the rally to the high-€80s by mid-month, with daily gains of 4.7% on 7 October, 4.8% on 9 October and 3.8% on 13 October; front-month TTF reached its highest since December 2022 that week. Prices kept rising in the week of 19–23 October on Norwegian outages at Troll and Åsgard and renewed Middle East tensions, reaching €92.80/MWh on 23 October. The final week was the sharpest: the index rose 5.3% on 26 October, 5.3% on 28 October and 5.4% on 30 October as unplanned Norwegian outages widened, reports of record attacks on Hormuz shipping circulated and QatarEnergy extended its force majeure, taking TTF to €105.13/MWh, with the front-month contract above €100/MWh for the first time since December 2022.
| Week | Avg. TTF Price (€/MWh) | WoW Change | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 (Oct 1-2) | 74.28 | — | Month opens at €73.56 after September’s pullback from €84.14; EU storage 72% full on 1 Oct, against 83% a year earlier |
| W2 (Oct 5-9) | 77.66 | +4.6% | Monthly low on 5 Oct, then colder forecasts and stronger Asian buying drive daily gains of 4.7% on 7 Oct and 4.8% on 9 Oct |
| W3 (Oct 12-16) | 86.95 | +12.0% | Front-month TTF reaches its highest since Dec 2022 (€85.85 on 13 Oct); storage about 74% full against a five-year average near 89% (ING) |
| W4 (Oct 19-23) | 89.41 | +2.8% | Troll and Åsgard outages and renewed Middle East tensions lift TTF to €92.80 on 23 Oct; storage peaks just under 75%; Brent hits a four-year high |
| W5 (Oct 26-30) | 100.38 | +12.3% | Norwegian curtailments peak at 46.8 mcm/day on 28 Oct; front-month TTF clears €100 on 29 Oct; QatarEnergy extends force majeure to year-end |
Source: GX Go
- TTF averaged €87.30/MWh in October, up 15.2% month on month; every other hub in this report rose 12.5-16.6% over the same period.
- The monthly trading range was €31.71/MWh (€73.42 – €105.13), more than double September’s €14.99/MWh range (€69.15 – €84.14), and the market closed the month at its high.
- Gains came in two bursts, with weekly moves of +4.6%, +12.0%, +2.8% and +12.3%: the mid-month breakout in the week of 12–16 October and the final-week surge on Norwegian outages and the force majeure extension.
- EU-wide gas storage was 72% full on 1 October and reached 74.62% on 22 October and 74.93% on 26 October (GIE AGSI+), so injections all but stalled in the second half of the month; ING noted that storage appeared to have peaked just under 75%, and the fill is lower than at any point in the AGSI+ record for the time of year.
Cross-market dynamics
- Global LNG competition intensified into a bidding contest for winter cargoes. Asian demand was firm, with stronger prompt buying in China, South Korea and India, while Henry Hub eased at the end of October, widening the incentive for US cargoes to sail to either basin. With QatarEnergy’s force majeure now extended to the end of the year, Atlantic Basin cargoes remain Europe’s marginal supply.
- Gas and oil moved together again in October, as they had in June and July, after August’s partial decoupling. Brent’s December contract settled to its highest close since 4 May, after Saudi Arabia restricted refined-product shipments. The link was not perfect: on 26 October crude eased on reports of diplomatic talks in Tehran while TTF rose on Norwegian outages, a reminder that gas was also being driven by its own supply constraints.
Cross-regional dynamics
- Basis relationships again shifted this month, with PEG’s discount widening the most.
- CEGH’s premium to TTF narrowed from +€1.22/MWh on 1 October to +€0.43/MWh on 30 October, its lowest of the month, after peaking at +€1.98/MWh on 23 October; September ended the same way (+€1.63/MWh to +€1.18/MWh), and the October average premium was +€1.21/MWh, against +€1.11/MWh in September.
- PEG’s discount to TTF, which emerged late in September (-€1.35/MWh on 30 September, averaging -€0.36/MWh over the month), deepened sharply in October, from -€1.83/MWh on 1 October to -€2.37/MWh on 30 October, within a range of -€2.47 to -€0.66/MWh and averaging -€1.70/MWh; PEG had held a small premium through July and August.
- ZTP’s basis moved from -€0.58/MWh on 1 October to +€0.10/MWh on 30 October, averaging -€0.33/MWh, a small discount against an average of -€0.07/MWh in September.
- ETF (Denmark) remained the most volatile basis, ranging from -€1.56/MWh on 1 October to +€1.81/MWh on 23 October and ending at -€1.38/MWh; its average of -€0.10/MWh was close to a full euro better than September’s -€0.99/MWh. THE held a small, steady premium (+€0.05 to +€1.08/MWh, averaging +€0.35/MWh, unchanged on September); on 23 October THE, CEGH and ETF (Denmark) all recorded their widest premium to TTF of the month.
- Volume rose 10.2% on September to 16.84 TWh and total trade counts rose to 10,096 from 9,275. TTF and NBP together held 69.7% of volume: TTF’s share eased to 47.6% from 51.1%, while NBP’s rose to 22.1% from 16.9% on a 49% increase in trades to 1,586. THE held at 16.4%, CEGH’s trade count rose 85% to 358 (share 2.5%, from 1.5%), and ZTP’s share slipped to 4.9% from 6.0%.
Hub-level detail for the month is set out below.
| Hub | Avg. Index (Day) | Range (Day) | MoM vs Sep | Total Vol. (MWh) | Vol. Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTF | 87.30 | 73.42 – 105.13 | +15.2% | 8,010,720 | 47.6% |
| NBP | 210.56 | 177.00 – 253.06 | +12.5% | 3,723,672 | 22.1% |
| THE | 87.65 | 73.61 – 105.55 | +15.2% | 2,764,176 | 16.4% |
| PEG | 85.60 | 71.55 – 102.76 | +13.5% | 886,235 | 5.3% |
| ZTP | 86.96 | 72.98 – 105.23 | +14.9% | 829,320 | 4.9% |
| CEGH | 88.51 | 74.78 – 105.55 | +15.2% | 420,312 | 2.5% |
| ETF (Denmark) | 87.19 | 72.00 – 103.74 | +16.6% | 209,280 | 1.2% |
Source: GX Go
Price volatility
Volatility roughly doubled in October, with every hub’s Day-Ahead coefficient of variation landing in a 10.3-11.2% range, against 5.0-5.7% in September, the calmest month of the series so far, and 6.9-7.5% in August. It remains below July’s 11.7-12.7% peak. ETF (Denmark) was the most volatile hub (11.20%) and CEGH the least (10.27%), a spread of under one percentage point. Unlike July’s crisis-driven spike, October’s dispersion reflects the scale of a steady trend rather than erratic trading: the index added roughly €32/MWh within the month, yet the largest single-day gain was 5.4%. The pattern across the months covered so far is consistent – volatility tracks how far the price travels within a month, not whether the move is orderly.
| Hub | CV (%) – Aug-26 | CV (%) – Sep-26 | CV (%) – Oct-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF (Denmark) | 6.85 | 5.33 | 11.20 |
| NBP | 7.38 | 5.36 | 11.10 |
| PEG | 7.23 | 5.67 | 11.00 |
| ZTP | 7.41 | 5.50 | 10.85 |
| THE | 7.42 | 5.35 | 10.66 |
| TTF | 7.48 | 5.47 | 10.62 |
| CEGH | 7.13 | 5.02 | 10.27 |
Source: GX Go
Something to watch
Qatari LNG force majeure
- Observation: Qatari LNG has not returned. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries to the end of 2026 in the final week of October, and ING expects Gulf LNG flows to be largely absent from the market for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
- Why it matters: With term supply unavailable, Europe and Asia are competing for the same uncommitted cargoes, which has pushed JKM and TTF up and left Atlantic Basin LNG as the marginal source of supply just as heating demand builds.
- What to monitor: Whether the Qatar-brokered framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reported at the start of November, translates into actual tanker transits, and any change to QatarEnergy’s force majeure notices.
Storage entering winter
- Observation: EU storage stalled just under 75% full (72% on 1 October, 74.93% on 26 October), the lowest level for the time of year in the AGSI+ record. The shortfall to the five-year average is more than 10 percentage points on every tracker, though the exact size of the gap is disputed (ING cites an average near 89%), and the relaxed 80% target for 1 November now looks out of reach on current trends.
- Why it matters: Injections have effectively ended while some countries have started drawing on storage as temperatures drop, and unplanned Norwegian outages are removing supply that would otherwise offset the LNG shortfall. ENTSOG has warned that storage could fall well below 30% by the end of winter if LNG stays constrained.
- What to monitor: Daily AGSI+ readings for the first sustained net withdrawals, Gassco outage notices and the pace of Norwegian recovery, and north-west European temperature forecasts for November.
Oil–gas convergence and post-midterm escalation risk
- Observation: Brent and TTF moved together in October, both lifted by the Hormuz standoff, after diverging in August. ING flagged the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November.
- Why it matters: A shared geopolitical driver means escalation would likely lift oil and gas together, while a diplomatic breakthrough, such as the Qatar-brokered plan reported on 1–2 November that pulled Brent lower, may not bring TTF the same relief given the gas-specific constraints of force majeure, low storage and Norwegian outages.
- What to monitor: The US response to the Qatar-brokered framework, any resumption of US strikes after the midterms, and whether the Brent–TTF relationship holds or diverges again.
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