Summary
Bunker prices rose at all four ports in October, but the stress moved from Fujairah to Singapore. Singapore VLSFO averaged $927.40/mt (+6.3% MoM), the highest in the 13-month series, and closed at its month high of $1,001.25/mt as lead times stretched to more than three weeks. Singapore IFO380 rose 21.3% MoM as Middle East and Russian HSFO flows dried up, cutting the Singapore Hi-Lo from $171.25/mt to $76.93/mt. Fujairah went the other way: VLSFO supply improved and its premium over Singapore fell from +$103.50/mt (12-Oct) to a $9.00/mt discount at close. NWE 3.5% Barges M1-M12 widened from $91.75/mt to $141.75/mt, above the $120/mt stress level. Watch Singapore stem availability: it now sets the East premium.
Price trends
All four ports rose; Singapore gained every week and closed above $1,000/mt as stems tightened
- Singapore VLSFO: open $854.75/mt, close $1,001.25/mt, avg $927.40/mt (+6.3% MoM, +102.8% YoY), high $1,001.25/mt (30-Oct); the average is the highest in the 13-month series, above September's $872.16/mt
- Rotterdam avg $729.84/mt (+6.9% MoM, +70.3% YoY), closing at its month high of $787.25/mt; Houston avg $779.50/mt (+3.9% MoM, +73.8% YoY) hit $845.00/mt on 23-Oct as prompt supply of all three grades tightened (lead times five days to a week)
- Fujairah avg $975.08/mt (+3.8% MoM, +111.3% YoY) held in a $68.50/mt range as VLSFO availability improved from mid-month
- Singapore's largest weekly gain came in W5 (+5.6%) as VLSFO lead times went from 10-15 days (6-Oct) to 13 days to more than three weeks (27-Oct) on constrained fuel oil stocks
| Week | Singapore ($/mt) | Rotterdam ($/mt) | Houston ($/mt) | Fujairah ($/mt) | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 (1-2 Oct) | 871.88 (+1.8%) | 674.00 (-0.9%) | 736.50 (+0.4%) | 944.75 (-5.1%) | Fujairah -$48.75/mt on 1-Oct; Singapore VLSFO lead times 10-15 days |
| W2 (5-9 Oct) | 892.90 (+2.4%) | 693.50 (+2.9%) | 742.95 (+0.9%) | 975.15 (+3.2%) | Fujairah peaks at $997.25/mt (6-Oct); Rotterdam +$29.75/mt on 8-Oct |
| W3 (12-16 Oct) | 911.80 (+2.1%) | 727.15 (+4.9%) | 764.20 (+2.9%) | 972.90 (-0.2%) | Singapore +$49.75/mt on 13-Oct; lead times 11-18 days; Fujairah VLSFO supply improves |
| W4 (19-23 Oct) | 937.45 (+2.8%) | 757.45 (+4.2%) | 795.05 (+4.0%) | 976.45 (+0.4%) | Typhoon halts Shanghai and Zhoushan bunkering from 20-Oct; Houston +$49.50/mt on 23-Oct |
| W5 (26-30 Oct) | 989.65 (+5.6%) | 763.60 (+0.8%) | 833.00 (+4.8%) | 987.95 (+1.2%) | Singapore closes above $1,000/mt; Fujairah slips below Singapore; Rotterdam +$22.75/mt on 30-Oct |
Source: GX Go
W1 based on 2 trading days, WoW vs 28-30 Sep.
Cross-commodity dynamics
Singapore HSFO rose 3.4x faster than VLSFO, more than halving the Singapore Hi-Lo; Rotterdam averaged below the $80/mt scrubber level
| Port | Sep Avg Hi-Lo | Oct Avg Hi-Lo | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | $171.25/mt | $76.93/mt | -$94.32 (-55.1%) |
| Rotterdam | $92.99/mt | $73.43/mt | -$19.56 (-21.0%) |
| Houston | $223.66/mt | $204.33/mt | -$19.33 (-8.6%) |
| Fujairah | $239.58/mt | $242.24/mt | +$2.66 (+1.1%) |
Source: GX Go
- Singapore IFO380 rose 21.3% MoM against VLSFO's 6.3%: Middle East fuel oil into Singapore fell to 40,000-50,000 b/d from 100,000 b/d in 2025, and Russian HSFO fell from 180,000 b/d in April to 25,000 b/d by September; Chinese HSFO buying and the typhoon halt at Shanghai and Zhoushan from 20-Oct added demand, and the Hi-Lo hit $13.00/mt on 19-Oct before recovering to $102.00/mt at close, just above the $100/mt scrubber-payback level
- Rotterdam Hi-Lo peaked at $85.00/mt (21-Oct), hit $46.50/mt on 28-Oct and closed at $80.00/mt, as HSFO tracked the NWE 3.5% Barges M1 rally (+17.4%)
Cross-regional dynamics
Fujairah's premium over Singapore turned into a discount; Singapore-Rotterdam hit $251.50/mt on 28-Oct
- Fujairah-Singapore VLSFO fell from +$103.50/mt (12-Oct) to -$9.00/mt at month close, its low for the month (avg +$47.68/mt vs +$66.81/mt in September); Fujairah VLSFO availability improved from mid-October and fuel oil exports fell from 357,000 b/d to 286,000 b/d (Vortexa), keeping more product at the port despite stocks averaging 9% lower (FOIZ/S&P Global)
- Singapore-Rotterdam VLSFO averaged $197.56/mt (Sep $189.39/mt) but swung from $153.00/mt (20-Oct) to $251.50/mt (28-Oct) as Singapore stems tightened, then eased to $214.00/mt at close on Rotterdam's +$22.75/mt on 30-Oct; IFO380 diff closed at $192.00/mt (1-Oct: $139.00/mt)
- Rotterdam-Houston VLSFO averaged -$49.66/mt (Sep -$66.23/mt), widened to -$85.00/mt on Houston's 23-Oct jump and closed at -$55.75/mt
Curve structure
Bull steepening for a second month; M1-M12 widened to $141.75/mt, above the $120/mt stress level
| Spread | Month-Start | Month-End | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| M1-M2 | $16.00/mt | $22.25/mt | +$6.25 |
| M1-M6 | $52.75/mt | $83.50/mt | +$30.75 |
| M1-M12 | $91.75/mt | $141.75/mt | +$50.00 |
Source: GX Go
- Bull steepening: M1 rose $96.75/mt (+17.4%) vs M12's +$46.75/mt (+10.1%), M1-M12 peaking at $151.50/mt on 28-Oct, as renewed Hormuz attacks lifted crude (Brent $113-115/bbl late October) with Gulf fuel oil access still blocked
- M1-M6 rose 4.9x more than M1-M2, so the premium is building across the first half of the curve, not in a single prompt month; a retreat toward $91.75/mt signals the Hormuz premium fading, a break above $151.50/mt signals it rebuilding
Price volatility
Fujairah CV fell to 1.78% as the volatility moved to Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston
| CV (%) | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore VLSFO | 4.42 | 8.18 | 11.34 | 3.01 | 2.99 | 4.64 |
| Rotterdam VLSFO | 4.77 | 8.03 | 7.33 | 2.95 | 2.91 | 4.80 |
| Fujairah VLSFO | 3.69 | 10.74 | 7.41 | 2.52 | 6.96 | 1.78 |
| Houston VLSFO | 5.10 | 10.54 | 10.37 | 1.87 | 3.73 | 4.99 |
| Singapore-Rotterdam diff | 47.87 | 20.98 | 39.95 | 13.56 | 8.12 | 13.21 |
Source: GX Go
- Fujairah CV fell from 6.96% to 1.78%, the lowest for any port in the six-month window: the Gulf shortage stopped driving prices
- Singapore-Rotterdam diff CV rose from 8.12% to 13.21% as the spread moved $98.50/mt in six trading days (20-28 Oct): the East premium is repricing in jumps again
Something to watch
- Singapore stem lead times: 13 days to more than three weeks on 27-Oct, with VLSFO at $1,001.25/mt on 30-Oct. Stem availability, not crude, now sets the Singapore premium: Singapore-Rotterdam reached $251.50/mt on 28-Oct before Rotterdam's late rally pulled it to $214.00/mt. Monitor: weekly Singapore lead times; Singapore-Rotterdam above $251.50/mt.
- Relief cargoes for Singapore: Aramco tendered more than 700,000 tonnes of November HSFO and China issued a 1.07 million tonne VLSFO export quota; Singapore VLSFO M1-M2 swaps narrowed from $38/mt to $32/mt by 23-Oct. The Hi-Lo is back at $102.00/mt; if these barrels arrive, it rebuilds further. Monitor: Singapore Hi-Lo holding above $100/mt; Singapore M1-M2 swaps.
- Fujairah below Singapore: -$9.00/mt on 30-Oct after +$103.50/mt on 12-Oct. A lasting discount draws Gulf demand back to Fujairah and eases the Singapore queue, though HSFO and LSMGO there remain limited. Monitor: weekly Fujairah-Singapore close; Fujairah fuel oil stocks.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 30 October 2026.
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