Summary
CORSIA Eligible Emissions Units (CEEU) averaged $12.85/mt in October, up $0.44 (+3.5%) MoM, as record CORSIA Phase 1 futures activity carried a $0.25 step on 1 October to a $13.05/mt high on 8 to 9 October. The gain faded after the EU moved its rules on which credits EU airlines can use to Q1 2027, and CEEU held $12.75/mt for the final 11 sessions, with a CV of 0.92%, the lowest since the April launch. Voluntary benchmarks did not move: CCP Current, NBS Removal, Removal, NBS Avoidance and IFM were unchanged in every session, so the CEEU premium over CCP Current widened to $6.40/mt from $5.96/mt. The movement came in quality and origin: BeZero BBB rose 15.5% MoM to average above AA, and Indian wind and renewable energy fell to $0.60/mt while Turkish wind held $0.65/mt. Airline demand is broadening into November, while COP31 Article 6 talks and Chile's move to open nature-based credits to CORSIA buyers set the supply test.
Market activity
CEEU futures orders rose while executed trades fell; new airlines joined compliance buying
- CORSIA Phase 1 futures open interest reached a record 2.5 million EEUs in mid-October, after a record 358,000 EEU session on 29 September within a record 1.2 million EEU week (ICE)
- CEEU futures: 81 bids vs 93 offers (September 65/67), 9 trades vs 16; order depth grew while fewer orders converted into trades
- CEEU spot: 34 bids vs 34 offers (September 60/52), 2 trades vs 1
- Voluntary projects: 173 bids vs 12,702 offers (September 249/12,748), 3 trades vs 5; offers far outnumber bids, consistent with flat voluntary benchmarks
- Airlines covering CORSIA obligations widened the buyer base:
- Malaysia Aviation Group retired about 70,000 credits from Cambodian and Rwandan cookstove projects
- Trinity Airways made its first retirement, of 20,000 tCO2e
- A spot request for proposals for 1 million t of CORSIA Phase 1 units closed on 26 October, with intermediaries sourcing from developers
- Voluntary buyer numbers rose 15% in September, with issuances and retirements also higher
Price action
CEEU rose 3.5% MoM to $12.85/mt but gave back its early-October gain to close at $12.75/mt
- CEEU opened $13.00/mt (1 Oct), up $0.25 from $12.75/mt (30 Sep), the largest session move of the month; high $13.05/mt (8 to 9 Oct); low and close $12.75/mt (16 to 30 Oct)
- Intra-month range $0.30/mt vs $0.55/mt in September; W4 and W5 held at the September close rather than falling below it
- Nature Based rose $0.25 to $18.20/mt on 19 October, its first move since 4 August; monthly average $18.06/mt (+0.6% MoM)
- Renewable Energy fell $0.05 to $0.60/mt on 2 October and held there for the rest of the month
- Other voluntary benchmarks printed flat in all 22 sessions: CCP Current $6.45/mt, NBS Removal $21.30/mt, Removal $22.45/mt, NBS Avoidance $6.85/mt, IFM $16.15/mt
CEEU (GX0022538)
| Week | Avg Price ($/mt) | WoW Change | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 (1–2 Oct) | 12.93 | — | Step-up after record futures week |
| W2 (5–9 Oct) | 13.02 | +0.7% | Monthly high $13.05 |
| W3 (12–16 Oct) | 12.83 | −1.5% | EU Implementing Act moved to Q1 2027 |
| W4 (19–23 Oct) | 12.75 | −0.6% | Held at September close |
| W5 (26–30 Oct) | 12.75 | 0.0% | Spot RFP closes 26 Oct |
Source: GX Go
Cross-market dynamics
Compliance demand widened the CEEU premium over voluntary credits to $6.40/mt while voluntary benchmarks stood still
- The CEEU premium over CCP Current averaged $6.40/mt vs $5.96/mt in September; CCP Current was unchanged at $6.45/mt in every session for a second month
- Airlines must cancel Phase 1 units by 31 January 2028; their buying goes only to CORSIA-eligible units, and CCP-labelled voluntary credits do not qualify, so the extra demand did not lift CCP prices
- The removal premium over avoidance (NBS Removal minus NBS Avoidance) held at $14.45/mt, unchanged from the September close
- The BeZero ladder stayed out of order: BBB averaged $5.12/mt (+15.5% MoM) above AA at $4.85/mt, peaking at $5.95/mt from 9 to 16 October before closing at $4.65/mt; B touched $2.90/mt on 19 October
- The AA premium over A closed at $0.25/mt, from $0.40/mt at the September close
- Verra moved the VCS Version 5 effective date to 1 July 2027 from 1 January 2027 (announced 27 October), extending the window for issuance under the current rules; prices did not respond in October
| BeZero tier ($/mt) | 1 Oct | 30 Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.85 | 4.85 | 0.00 |
| A | 4.45 | 4.60 | +0.15 |
| BBB | 4.90 | 4.65 | −0.25 |
| BB | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| B | 3.70 | 3.35 | −0.35 |
Source: GX Go
Cross-regional dynamics
Indian wind split from Turkish wind for the first time since July
- Indian Wind and Renewable Energy fell to $0.60/mt on 2 October while Turkish Wind and Wind held $0.65/mt, the first divergence since the three wind series converged at $0.65/mt in July
- The first ITMO Registry credits under Article 6 were issued at prices as low as $1/t, close to the bottom of the GX renewable price range
- Chile is moving to authorise reforestation, soil carbon and forest conservation credits for sale to CORSIA buyers and to Singapore under Article 6, ahead of COP31 in Antalya in November
- India is preparing domestic carbon trading ahead of joining CORSIA from 2027
Data & positioning
The 2022 vintage fell $0.20/mt, widening its discount to current vintages to $2.35/mt
- The CCP 2022 vintage stepped down to $4.10/mt by 7 October; the 2021 vintage edged up $0.05/mt and the 2020 vintage held
| CCP series ($/mt) | 1 Oct | 30 Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Vintages | 6.45 | 6.45 | 0.00 |
| 2022 Vintage | 4.30 | 4.10 | −0.20 |
| 2021 Vintage | 3.10 | 3.15 | +0.05 |
| 2020 Vintage | 2.65 | 2.65 | 0.00 |
| Current vs 2021 | 3.35 | 3.30 | −0.05 |
| Current vs 2022 | 2.15 | 2.35 | +0.20 |
Source: GX Go
Price volatility
CEEU CV fell to 0.92%, the lowest since launch, while BBB carried the month's volatility
- CEEU's 0.92% compares with 12.27% in July; the 11 flat sessions at month-end compressed realised volatility
- BBB posted a double-digit CV for a second month (10.39% after 13.11%) as the BeZero tiers reshuffled
- Six of eight series printed 0.00% or below 1%; price risk currently sits in the CORSIA and rating segments, not the voluntary headline
| CV (%) | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEEU | 10.19 | 2.13 | 12.27 | 1.51 | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| CCP Current | 4.26 | 4.38 | 3.99 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nature Based | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| NBS Removal | 0.10 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Removal | 1.64 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NBS Avoidance | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| BeZero AA | 7.49 | 0.00 | 7.90 | 0.00 | 11.23 | 0.00 |
| BeZero BBB | 2.57 | 0.79 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 13.11 | 10.39 |
Source: GX Go
Something to watch
- EU rules on which credits EU airlines can use:
- Observation: adoption of the Implementing Act has moved to Q1 2027 from Q4 2026, and EU airlines bought limited volumes during Phase 1
- Why it matters: a draft will define which credits EU carriers can use, which would release coverage buying they have deferred into CEEU
- What to monitor: publication of the Commission draft; CEEU against its October high of $13.05/mt
- Article 6 supply at COP31:
- Observation: Chile is opening nature-based credits to CORSIA and Article 6 buyers, and the first ITMO Registry credits were issued at prices as low as $1/t
- Why it matters: more authorised supply widens the eligible pool and tests whether the $6.40/mt CEEU premium over CCP holds
- What to monitor: COP31 Antalya outcomes in November; the monthly ICAO registry dashboard count of labelled units
- Phase 1 demand depth:
- Observation: futures open interest is at a record 2.5 million EEUs, a 1 million t spot RFP has closed, and India joins CORSIA from 2027
- Why it matters: if these orders convert into trades, CEEU could move off the $12.75/mt level it held for the last 11 sessions; if they don't, the late-October flat line continues
- What to monitor: ICE CP1 open interest; the RFP award; CEEU's daily close against $12.75/mt
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 30 October 2026.
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