Summary
October was a weak month for US biofuel credits and ethanol, and a strong one for renewable diesel. The D6 RIN fell 22.33% from $2.11 to $1.64 between 5 and 21 October and D4 fell 18.94%, after EPA proposed adding back 770 million exempted RINs and published strong September D4 generation. Chicago ethanol fell 7.41% in the last week to a $1.85/gal average as US output rose to 1.12 million barrels/day, and corn dropped 10.05% on USDA's higher yield estimate. California renewable diesel rose 12.49%, narrowing its discount to ULSD from $0.45 to $0.08/gal. EPA's final rule on the 770 million RINs, with comments closing 4 December, decides whether the 2026 obligation that D6 prices gets about half of them or none.
Blended feedstock index (W1=100)
| Week | Index | WoW % |
|---|---|---|
| W1 (1–2 Oct) | 100.00 | |
| W2 (5–9 Oct) | 101.18 | +1.18 |
| W3 (12–16 Oct) | 99.66 | -1.50 |
| W4 (19–23 Oct) | 98.17 | -1.50 |
| W5 (26–30 Oct) | 97.35 | -0.83 |
Source: GX Go
Price action
| Product | W2 (5-9 Oct) % | W3 (12-16 Oct) % | W4 (19-23 Oct) % | W5 (26-30 Oct) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Ethanol | -2.41 | +1.38 | -4.56 | -7.41 |
| D6 | +1.74 | -5.67 | -12.07 | +5.14 |
| D4 | +2.27 | -4.74 | -9.95 | +4.30 |
| RD California | -1.25 | +3.73 | +7.03 | -0.97 |
| RD USGC | -1.37 | +3.86 | +7.25 | -1.21 |
| B99 USGC | +3.25 | +1.14 | -1.24 | -3.91 |
| B99 California | +2.34 | +4.44 | +0.85 | -2.15 |
| B99 Midwest | +2.39 | +4.53 | +0.87 | -2.19 |
| B99 East Coast | +2.21 | +4.20 | +0.81 | -2.04 |
Source: GX Go
- Ethanol output rose every week in October, from 1.05 to 1.12 million barrels/day, and stocks grew to 24.52 million barrels, while Argo fell from $2.12 to $2.00/gal over the same weeks (EIA); the rising supply coincides with the price drop.
- D6, D4 and the RVO fell together in October: D6 lost $0.20 per RIN to $1.79, D4 lost $0.15 to $1.90, and the RVO lost $0.03/gal to $0.29, so D4’s premium over D6 doubled from $0.05 to $0.11 per RIN; the drops accelerated as EPA proposed how to add back 770 million exempted RINs and published September data showing strong D4 generation (EPA).
Cross-market dynamics
- Corn fell 10.05% from $5.05 to $4.54/bushel. USDA raised the corn yield to 181.20 bushels/acre, ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.85 billion and ethanol use by 50 million to 5.65 billion (USDA).
- Soybean oil and ULSD futures moved in opposite directions in October: soybean oil slipped 1.19% while ULSD rose 3.20%, so the BOHO spread narrowed from $0.39 to $0.18/gal, which means soybean oil became cheaper relative to diesel and the biodiesel margin before credits widened.
- Renewable Diesel California rose 12.49% while ULSD futures rose 3.20%, so its discount to ULSD narrowed from $0.45 to $0.08/gal, and it even traded at a $0.17 premium on 28-Oct; renewable diesel gained on regular diesel even as the D4 RIN fell, consistent with California’s state credit layer supporting its price.
Something to watch
- D6 fell 22.33% from $2.11 to $1.64 per RIN between 5-Oct and 21-Oct before closing at $1.79, and its next leg depends on how EPA finalizes the reallocation of the 770 million RINs exempted from 2025 compliance: an equal split would add about half to the 2026 obligation that D6 prices, while an all-2027 outcome would add none, and the proposal may also extend the 31-Mar-2027 deadline for 2026 compliance reporting, so the industry should track the comment period (closing 4-Dec) and the final rule in docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2024-0505.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 30 October 2026.
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