Summary
ULSD NYH barges averaged 483.14 c/gal, down 1.61% on September, and gained 1.05% between 1 and 30 October. The low came on 2 October, when the US President dropped the diesel export ban after the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel. Jet kept its gain on diesel: the jet minus ULSD spread at Pasadena averaged -20.77 c/gal from -34.75 as East Coast jet stocks fell 8.5% (EIA). Chicago spiked twice as Midwest distillate stocks drew 2.0 million barrels during a late harvest. The Pasadena curve compressed.
Price trends
ULSD NYH averaged 1.61% below September after three rising weeks and a fall in the last.
- ULSD NYH barges averaged 483.14 c/gal against 491.05 (-1.61% MoM; up 111.55% YoY against 228.38); high 505.42 on 23 Oct, low 453.61 on 2 Oct, when the US President dropped the diesel export ban.
- ULSD NYH rose 27.52 c/gal on 8 Oct as Hurricane Isaias threatened nearly 500,000 b/d of refining capacity, and fell 13.95 on 9 Oct when the US licensed Russian diesel imports.
- Pasadena ULSD averaged 468.61 c/gal (-1.30%), Group 3 489.71 (1.29%), Chicago 477.05 (-1.84%).
| Week | Avg ULSD NYH (c/gal) | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|
| W1 (1-2 Oct) | 460.15 | |
| W2 (5-9 Oct) | 470.57 | +2.3% |
| W3 (12-16 Oct) | 489.69 | +4.1% |
| W4 (19-23 Oct) | 499.19 | +1.9% |
| W5 (26-30 Oct) | 482.29 | -3.4% |
Source: GX Go
Cross-commodity dynamics
Jet held its gain on diesel: the Pasadena jet discount averaged 20.77 c/gal from 34.75.
- Jet at NY Buckeye averaged 4.84 c/gal over NYH barge ULSD (September -26.05).
- Jet 54 Colonial Pasadena averaged 447.84 c/gal, up 1.78%, while Pasadena ULSD fell 1.30%.
- East Coast jet stocks fell 8.5% to 9.3 million barrels in the three weeks to 23 Oct and East Coast jet output averaged 75,000 b/d over four weeks, against 85,000 a year earlier (EIA); airport screenings ran 1.0% below October 2025 (TSA).
Market activity
ULSD volume fell 22.4% and jet 45.4%.
- On the aggregate of the month's trades (not published index volumes), ULSD traded 19.8 million bbl (-22.4%) and jet 10.9 million (-45.4%).
Cross-regional dynamics
Chicago spiked twice and closed 51.50 c/gal over Pasadena.
- Chicago West Shore ULSD rose from 488.00 c/gal on 20 Oct to 535.71 on 22 Oct and from 461.51 on 26 Oct to 521.25 on 29 Oct, as Midwest distillate stocks fell 2.0 million barrels in the three weeks to 23 Oct, to 24.2 million (EIA).
- Group 3 ULSD averaged 21.09 c/gal over Pasadena (September 8.68): the corn harvest was 60% complete on 25 Oct, six points behind pace (USDA).
- NYH barges averaged 14.53 c/gal over Pasadena (September 16.27); the NYH barge basis to NYMEX ULSD went from -2.50 on 14 Oct to 9.00 on 15 Oct and held above 9.00 through 21 Oct as East Coast distillate stocks dipped to 21.0 million barrels (EIA) and the Bayway refinery ran under a lockout from 19 Oct.
Curve structure
Compression at Pasadena: M1 fell $3.30/bbl while M12 rose $4.54.
- M1-M6 narrowed $4.88/bbl and M1-M2 $2.48, so the easing came at the front. Jet Pasadena M1-M12 narrowed to 89.43 c/gal from 109.84.
| Spread (ULSD Colonial Pasadena, $/bbl) | Month-Start | Month-End | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| M1-M2 | +6.32 | +3.84 | -2.48 |
| M1-M6 | +27.15 | +22.27 | -4.88 |
| M1-M12 | +47.63 | +39.79 | -7.84 |
Source: GX Go
Price volatility
Diesel and jet had their calmest month of the six, and Chicago carried the price risk.
- CV measures how far prices typically sat from the monthly average: ULSD NYH's 3.25% means about 16 c/gal either side, against 23 in September; Jet 54 Pasadena (2.41%) and Group 3 ULSD (3.53%) also hit six-month lows.
- Chicago West Shore's 7.27% means about 35 c/gal either side, more than twice New York's, after two spikes.
| CV (%) | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULSD NYH barges | 4.53 | 6.77 | 10.20 | 5.85 | 4.66 | 3.25 |
| Jet 54 Colonial Pasadena | 6.45 | 10.03 | 11.48 | 4.57 | 4.25 | 2.41 |
| ULSD Group 3 | 8.73 | 7.48 | 9.40 | 5.55 | 4.29 | 3.53 |
| ULSD Chicago West Shore | 10.85 | 8.70 | 10.85 | 5.42 | 8.13 | 7.27 |
Source: GX Go
Something to watch
Chicago after two spikes:
- Observation: Chicago ULSD closed at 517.61 c/gal, 51.50 over Pasadena.
- Why it matters: Midwest stocks at 24.2 million barrels after four weekly draws, a late harvest and fuel-hauler emergency orders in Nebraska (20 Oct) and Iowa (29 Oct) keep the interior bidding for barrels into November.
- What to monitor: EIA Midwest distillate stocks; USDA harvest progress; Chicago ULSD against Pasadena.
Jet against diesel:
- Observation: Pasadena jet closed 26.00 c/gal under ULSD; New York jet closed 10.00 over New York diesel.
- Why it matters: the narrowing came from low East Coast jet stocks and output, not demand; a return to last year's output would widen it again.
- What to monitor: EIA East Coast jet stocks and production; jet minus ULSD at Pasadena.
East Coast diesel supply into winter:
- Observation: East Coast distillate stocks were 21.8 million barrels on 23 Oct and output averaged 254,000 b/d over four weeks, against 273,000 in September (EIA).
- Why it matters: EIA expects East Coast distillate stocks 20% to 30% below their usual level through the winter, leaving New York reliant on Colonial and imports and its barge basis exposed to stock dips, as on 15 Oct.
- What to monitor: EIA East Coast distillate stocks and production; the NYH barge basis to NYMEX ULSD.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 30 October 2026.
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