The voluntary carbon complex split sharply by quality tier in April, with the dominant story the reported pause in Microsoft's carbon removal purchasing programme around 11–13 April. Tech Removal averaged $21.53/mt (+6.1% MoM, a 13-month high) but opened and closed identically at $21.10/mt as the news flattened the late-month bid; Nature Based Removal followed the same pattern. Volatility collapsed in both removal segments (Tech CV 2.22% vs 7.36% March; Nature Based Removal CV 1.06% vs 5.70%), consistent with ~90% of global engineered CDR demand stepping back. Nature Based Avoidance broke its $7.45/mt floor that had held since June 2025, while CCP held a $0.25 range as ICVCM-approved supply expansion capped upside against compliance-adjacent demand on the floor. The forward question is whether Microsoft's pause is duration-limited or signals a regime shift; flat removals through May would move the floor down to mid-March levels.
Price Action
- Tech Removal averaged $21.53/mt (+6.1% MoM, +72.9% YoY); monthly high $22.45/mt, low $21.10/mt, intra-month range of $1.35/mt vs March's $4.35 — the rally completed early then froze.
- Nature Based Removal averaged $20.22/mt (+1.8% MoM, +62.4% YoY); opened and closed identically at $20.15/mt, mirroring Tech Removal's pattern.
- Nature Based Avoidance averaged $6.90/mt (-7.4% MoM, -40.3% YoY); opened $7.45 and closed $6.70 (-10.1% O/C), the first sub-$7.45 close in 10 months.
- CCP Current Vintages averaged $5.62/mt (-1.1% MoM); opened $5.70, closed $5.45 — flat at the index's narrow trading range.
- BeZero AA averaged $8.11/mt (-4.2% MoM, +70.8% YoY) — first MoM decline since the Aug–Nov 2025 rally — but opened $7.45 and closed $8.70 (+16.8% O/C), recovering through the month.
- BeZero A averaged $3.34/mt (+9.4% MoM, +147.2% YoY); opened $3.05 and closed $3.85 (+26.2% O/C), the strongest open-to-close move in the set
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Price Volatility
[EUA vs UKA spread, linkage dynamics, regional policy divergence.]
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- Nature Based Avoidance second-leg confirmation:
- Observation: $7.45 floor broken; closed $6.70.
- Why it matters: a sustained May print below $6.70 confirms the floor break as structural rather than a one-month overshoot, with the next technical reference around mid-2025 lows; a recovery back above $7.45 within May would signal the April break was forced selling rather than regime shift.
- What to monitor: weekly closes; corporate disclosure cycles ahead of EU Empowering Consumers Directive coming into force September 2026.
- CCP supply throughput vs price floor:
- Observation: CCP held a $0.25 range despite continued ICVCM approvals expanding the eligible pool.
- Why it matters: the $5.45 floor is the proxy for compliance-adjacent demand; if it breaks while ICVCM continues approving methodologies, supply is outpacing compliance demand and the label premium compresses; if it holds through May despite further approvals, demand is absorbing supply and the next directional move is up.
- What to monitor: ICVCM methodology approval announcements; the Singapore CCP-aligned tender pipeline; CORSIA Phase 1 retirement disclosures.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 April 2026.
