SUMMARY
Crude Palm Oil (Singapore FOB, USD) rallied to a 12-month high of $1,184.09/MT (21-Aug) on Indonesia's new B50 mandate and an intensifying El Niño, before easing to close $1,149.63/MT (+2.26% MoM). UCO Singapore FOB held firm through the rally, closing $1,190.00/MT (+1.46% MoM) at 13-month highs. The renewable grades diverged from that shared trigger: HVO Class II held most of its rally (+4.99% MoM), SAF gave back nearly all of its gain (-2.14% MoM), though both peaked, like Palm Oil, on 21-Aug. Green premiums split accordingly: HVO's over Gasoil recovered to $1,635/MT, SAF's over Jet fell to $1,464/MT, its lowest in three months. With B50 not fully phased in until October, the feedstock cost floor looks set to climb into Q4.
PRODUCT TRENDS
[Who was active? Buy/sell ratios, dominant counterparties, volumes, behavioral shifts vs prior month.]
- SAF Neat HEFA Malacca Straits FOB averaged $2,631.28/MT in August vs $2,688.85/MT in July (-2.14% MoM), +13.73% YoY; opened $2,669.00 (03-Aug), closed $2,673.50 (28-Aug), flat despite a $2,469.25-$2,753.00 swing
- HVO Class II Malacca Straits FOB averaged $2,798.11/MT in August vs $2,665.23/MT in July (+4.99% MoM), +27.97% YoY; opened $2,746.50 (03-Aug), closed $2,834.75 (28-Aug), holding most of its intramonth gain
- Both bottomed 06-Aug and peaked 21-Aug, the same session Crude Palm Oil hit its own 12-month high; HVO carried the rally into month-end while SAF gave nearly all of it back, a shared trigger with opposite outcomes
FEEDSTOCK TRENDS
- Crude Palm Oil Singapore FOB (USD) averaged $1,131.09/MT in August vs $1,106.10/MT in July (+2.26% MoM), +10.22% YoY; opened at the monthly low $1,093.69/MT (03-Aug), rallied to $1,184.09/MT (21-Aug), closed $1,149.63/MT (28-Aug), on B50-driven demand and El Niño impact of crops and expansion of wildfires in Indonesia
- UCO Singapore FOB averaged $1,185.00/MT vs $1,168.00/MT in July (+1.46% MoM), +10.59% YoY; opened $1,180.00/MT (07-Aug), closed $1,190.00/MT (28-Aug) on the narrowest $10/MT range in 13 months, holding firm as Palm Oil's rally narrowed UCO's premium over it
- The HVO HEFA (UCO) Singapore production cost margin vs Gasoil 10ppm averaged $603.21/MT, down 8.8% MoM, swinging $162/MT intramonth ($530.25-$692.25) on Gasoil's own volatility, not the feedstock leg
CROSS-COMMODITY DYNAMICS
- HVO and SAF green premiums diverged as the renewable grades split from their shared feedstock trigger
- HVO green premium (HVO Class II minus Gasoil 10ppm Singapore) averaged $1,635.18/MT in August, +1.89% MoM after July's $1,604.82/MT (-9.80% MoM from June's $1,779.22/MT); the recovery tracks HVO's own rally outpacing Gasoil
- SAF green premium (SAF minus Jet Fuel Singapore) averaged $1,463.69/MT, -8.09% MoM and the lowest of the three-month window, extending July's -4.08% decline from June's $1,660.37/MT, as SAF's flat close met a firmer Jet market
SOMETHING TO WATCH
- Palm Oil rally sustainability: Further El Niño related impact on output would sustain the rally; a reversal (rain, delayed B50) could unwind gains fast
- Green premium divergence: A widening HVO premium raises diesel-side mandate cost relative to jet-side; continued SAF compression against rising feedstock costs tightens SAF margins first
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period covered by this monthly update.
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