SUMMARY
August 2026 continued July's recovery, with GO prices tracing a hump-shaped path — rising to a peak in Week 33 (10–14 Aug), then easing through the second half of the month. The whole complex settled higher than July, with most products in the mid-€1.5s versus mid-€1.4s a month earlier. Total volume was 13.3 TWh across 249 trades over 20 active days, up ~21% on July (11.0 TWh), with activity heavily concentrated in the first half — Weeks 32–33 alone accounted for 74% of monthly volume. WSH remained dominant at 6.3 TWh (48% of volume). The market stayed offer-heavy at 76 offers versus 13 bids, the widest seller-skew in recent months.
MARKET ACTIVITY
- 249 trades across 20 active days, front-loaded into the first two weeks. Week 33 (10–14 Aug) was exceptionally active at 108 trades and 5.3 TWh — the single busiest week across all months covered — before activity roughly halved in Weeks 34–35.
- WSH: 105 trades, 6.3 TWh — the core liquidity instrument, ~48% of monthly volume.
- Hydro (non-Nordic): 55 trades, 2.3 TWh, concentrated in Week 33 (34 trades).
- Nordic Hydro: 40 trades, 2.5 TWh, with Norwegian origin dominant (21 of 40 trades). Volume up sharply on July's 0.9 TWh.
- Renewable: 28 trades, 1.5 TWh. AIB GC and European origins featured; front-loaded into Week 32 (1.07 TWh of the monthly 1.53 TWh).
- Wind: 14 trades, 0.51 TWh — more than double July's volume, with the Week 33 peak reaching €1.910.
- Solar, Nuclear: minimal. Solar just 1 trade; Nuclear 6 trades, all in Week 35.
- Offer-heavy market: 76 offers vs. 13 bids, a wider seller-skew than July, pointing to ample supply meeting still-thin late-summer buy-side interest.
PRICE ACTION
- Prices traced a hump this month — rising into a Week 33 peak, then easing — and sat a clear step above July across every product.
- WSH: €1.520 (W32) → €1.596 (W33) → €1.552 (W34) → €1.550 (W35). Peaked mid-month then held steady around €1.55, roughly 7% above July's average.
- Nordic Hydro: The most pronounced hump — €1.493 (W32) up to €1.685 (W33), easing to €1.613 (W35). Norwegian supply kept the range orderly.
- Hydro (non-Nordic): €1.545 (W32) to a €1.630 W33 peak, then back to €1.523 by W35 — mirroring the WSH and Nordic Hydro arc.
- Renewable: Firmest at the W33 peak (€1.637) before settling near €1.553; broadly tracked WSH.
- Wind: The strongest product at the peak, reaching a €1.910 high in W33 before easing to the €1.51–1.57 range in W34–35.
- Nuclear: Active only in Week 35, and notably soft — one large 150,000 MWh 2025 Q4 trade printed at €0.040, dragging the w-avg to €0.055, below the ~€0.10 seen in prior months.
- Vintage curve: 2026 was the most liquid vintage (5.1 TWh). A clear 2027 premium re-emerged across products (e.g. WSH 2027 at €1.656 vs. 2026 at €1.530; Nordic Hydro 2027 at €1.694 vs. 2026 at €1.568), before flattening into 2028–2031 — a steeper near-forward curve than July's compressed structure.
CROSS-REGIONAL DYNAMICS
- Norway continued to dominate Nordic Hydro supply (21 of 40 trades), consistent with its established role as the primary origin in the Nordic hub.
- European and AIB GC origins again dominated WSH, Hydro, and Renewable activity, continuing the pan-European basket as the default instrument. AIB GC featured more prominently in Renewable (10 of 28 trades) this month.
- A Norwegian-origin Wind/Hydro trade (220 GWh, 2025 delivery) was folded into WSH per the standing classification, and a Nordic-hub WH trade into Nordic Hydro.
- Named national origins remained sparse — isolated Germany and Denmark Wind trades, and Iceland appearing in both Hydro and WSH — consistent with the summer tilt toward standardized basket products.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period covered by this monthly update.
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