August Pricing Analysis - Global Marine

SUMMARY

Marine bunker markets split along a different axis than July: Fujairah rallied steadily to a fresh monthly high ($844.25/MT, +5.33% intra-month) as inventories were drawn 35% into August on halted imports and rising exports, while Singapore reversed hard into month-end, falling $37-56/MT in the final week even as its own stocks sat 2% below July and net imports plunged 41% MoM. The result was a first-of-series flip: Fujairah-Singapore VLSFO moved from +$28.67/MT in July to -$13.11/MT in August, a $41.78/MT swing, while Singapore-Rotterdam widened 49.0% to $169.55/MT on the same divergence. Houston's Hi-Lo spread jumped 30.5% to $217.95/MT, the widest of the four ports for the first time in the tracked series, as Houston HSFO fell 6.34% MoM against a firming VLSFO, a move with no confirmed driver. The upstream picture stayed structurally unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz standoff remains unresolved, with vessel transits still collapsed to 8-15 per day and Brent holding $84-91/bbl through the month, lifting the NWE Fuel Oil 3.5% Barges curve by $28-31/MT in near-parallel fashion across all tenors rather than the bull steepening seen in July. EUA continued higher (€81.63/MT, +1.50% MoM) but at a much slower pace than July's ETS-reform-driven surge. Every port's flat-price volatility compressed to its calmest reading of the six-month window even as isolated single-day moves, Rotterdam's -7.63% on 6-Aug among them, were some of the sharpest of the year.

PRICE ACTION

Singapore VLSFO

• Averaged $823.11/MT in August vs $755.70/MT in July (+8.92% MoM, +65.4% YoY vs August 2025's $497.63/MT); the month itself was a reversal: open $851.50/MT (3-Aug), close $814.25/MT (31-Aug), -4.37% intra-month, with the largest one-day move a $57.75/MT (-6.96%) drop on 26-Aug

Rotterdam VLSFO

• Averaged $652.63/MT (+1.67% MoM, +38.4% YoY); open $664.50/MT, close $655.25/MT (-1.39%); high $689.00/MT (4-Aug), low $605.25/MT (6-Aug) on a $50.00/MT (-7.63%) one-day drop that set the monthly low just three trading days in

Houston VLSFO

• Averaged $687.99/MT (+2.86% MoM, +41.5% YoY); open $714.00/MT (3-Aug, also the monthly high), close $686.00/MT (-3.92%); the month traded down from the open with no fresh high reached afterward

Fujairah VLSFO

• Averaged $810.00/MT (+3.27% MoM, +62.2% YoY); open $801.50/MT, close $844.25/MT (+5.33%), the only port to close above its open; low $762.00/MT (5-Aug) followed by a $55.00/MT (+7.17%) rebound on 7-Aug and a steady climb to a fresh monthly high on the final trading day

CROSS-MARKET DYNAMICS

• Houston's Hi-Lo widened $50.92/MT (+30.5%) to $217.95/MT, the widest of any port for the first time in the series, as Houston HSFO fell 6.34% MoM to $470.04/MT even as Houston VLSFO firmed 2.86%; Engine's mid-August Americas outlook cites tight prompt availability at Houston across all conventional grades including HSFO, which does not explain a falling HSFO price, so the divergence is unattributed
• Singapore, Rotterdam and Fujairah Hi-Lo all narrowed (-12.7%, -8.7%, -17.5%) as HSFO outran VLSFO at each: Singapore HSFO rose 17.67% MoM, the sharpest HSFO move of any port, against VLSFO's 8.92%; Fujairah HSFO rose 11.72% against VLSFO's 3.27%
• Singapore's Hi-Lo at $189.65/MT remains above the desk's $100/MT scrubber-payback level for a sixth straight month despite the narrowing; Fujairah's $187.19/MT is its narrowest reading since before June's Al-Zour-driven shortage spike ($496.57/MT)
• Biofuel green premiums diverged rather than moving together: Singapore B24 vs VLSFO narrowed to $135.64/MT (from $151.73/MT, -10.6%) as Singapore's late-month VLSFO drop outran the biodiesel price, while Rotterdam B30 vs VLSFO widened to $277.72/MT (from $261.63/MT, +6.1%) as Rotterdam VLSFO's modest gain lagged firmer biodiesel pricing; both moves are mechanical, not a decarbonization signal.

CROSS-REGIONAL DYNAMICS

• Fujairah-Singapore VLSFO swung from +$28.67/MT (July average) to -$13.11/MT (August average), a $41.78/MT reversal, as Fujairah's inventory-driven rally outpaced Singapore's late-month pullback; this is the pair's first negative monthly average in the desk's tracked history
• Singapore-Rotterdam VLSFO widened to $169.55/MT (+49.0% vs July's $113.78/MT), peaking at $225.75/MT (7-Aug) before compressing to $134.00/MT by month-end (28-Aug) as Singapore's correction closed most of the gap
• Singapore-Rotterdam IFO380 surged to $98.82/MT (+267.7% vs July's $26.88/MT), the sharpest cross-regional move of the month, confirming Singapore's HSFO tightness (+17.67% MoM) extended well beyond the VLSFO grade
• Rotterdam-Houston VLSFO deepened to -$35.46/MT (-45.3% vs July's -$24.41/MT) as the two ports' underlying HSFO markets pulled in opposite directions

PRICE VOLATILITY

• Every series hit its lowest CV of the six-month window in August: Houston fell to 1.87% (from July's 10.37%), Singapore to 3.01% (from 11.34%), and the Singapore-Rotterdam differential to 13.56% (from 39.95%), its calmest reading since before March's Hormuz-closure spike
• The compressed CV sits alongside some of the year's sharpest single-day moves (Rotterdam -7.63% on 6-Aug, Singapore -6.96% on 26-Aug, Fujairah +7.17% on 7-Aug), meaning August's volatility concentrated in isolated one- or two-day shocks rather than sustained through the month
• The gap between low monthly CV and high single-day moves is itself the signal: a market pricing a sustained regime would show elevated CV throughout the month; instead, each port largely mean-reverted around a new, higher average within days of its shock

SOMETHING TO WATCH

• Fujairah-Singapore VLSFO spread has flipped negative
  • Observation: The pair averaged -$13.11/MT in August, reversing from +$28.67/MT in July, a $41.78/MT swing, as Fujairah inventories were drawn 35% into August (imports halted, exports up 49,000 b/d to 217,000 b/d) while Singapore corrected $37-56/MT in the final week despite its own inventories running 2% below July and net imports down 41% MoM.
  • Why it matters: A sustained Fujairah discount to Singapore would be a first in the tracked series and signals the Hormuz-driven Middle East premium now outweighing East-of-Suez tightness; if Singapore's own supply data reasserts itself, a September snap-back could reopen the spread as fast as it closed.
  • What to monitor: Weekly Fujairah-Singapore VLSFO close; Fujairah fuel oil import/export volumes; Singapore residual inventory releases.
• Houston's Hi-Lo is the widest of the four ports with no confirmed driver
  • Observation: Houston's Hi-Lo spread widened 30.5% to $217.95/MT, overtaking Singapore as the desk's widest port-level Hi-Lo, driven entirely by HSFO falling 6.34% MoM while VLSFO rose.
  • Why it matters: Every other port's Hi-Lo move ties to a documented supply or demand mechanism this month; Houston's does not, so the risk is either an unreported local HSFO oversupply or an assessment anomaly that reverses in September.
  • What to monitor: Houston HSFO weekly average; Engine's Americas fuel availability outlook for a Gulf Coast HSFO-specific update.
• Strait of Hormuz standoff remains unresolved heading into September
  • Observation: Vessel transits stayed near 8-15 per day in early August versus roughly 130 pre-conflict, with Iran's conditions for reopening (sanctions relief, war reparations) still unmet as of 10-Aug and Brent holding an $84-91/bbl range through the month.
  • Why it matters: The entire month's structure, Fujairah's rally, elevated Hi-Lo at three of four ports, and the crude-driven curve rally, rests on this standoff continuing; a breakthrough in the Oman-mediated talks would unwind the Fujairah premium and the broader complex rally simultaneously.
  • What to monitor: Oman-mediated negotiation updates; daily Hormuz transit counts; Brent M1 close.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period covered by this monthly update.