Has anything really changed? What a fossil shock revealed about the price of SAF.
In early 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closed and fossil fuel prices surged. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), despite having no shared supply chain, rose almost in lockstep. This joint white paper from LSEG and General Index examines the supply, demand, cost and liquidity data behind that move, and tests assumptions the market has made since the crisis began.
Europe-bound HEFA loadings collapsed in February, then ran at or above a normal month from March to July. No part of the price move can be attributed to resupply volume with confidence.
Two months of disruption produced 23 bids, 22 offers and six trades. Almost all participation came from fossil-market participants rather than renewable fuel producers or airlines.
Once EU ETS and FuelEU costs were counted, UCOME undercut marine gasoil and B30 VLSFO became the cheapest bunker option in April.
Closing the gap between SAF and fossil jet would need an EU ETS allowance price around five times today's level.
General Index delivers FCA-regulated energy benchmarks built on real market activity, with more than 400,000 monthly trades, tested algorithms and expert market sign-off. Spot prices and forward curves span crude oil, refined products, natural gas and energy transition.
LSEG operates a global markets infrastructure and data business spanning trading venues, post-trade clearing, and data and analytics services used across capital markets.
Read the full analysis from General Index and LSEG.
