SAF and HVO prices fell hard mid-month tracking collapse in crude prices, though still up sharply YoY. UCO held firmly amid strong Chinese domestic demand for HVO, SAF and UCOME. On the other end of the spectrum, crude palm oil dipped on ringgit strength and weaker crude oil and soybean oil prices. Margins held flat despite product sell-off, confirming price drop was fossil fuel-driven not cost-driven. Green premiums narrowed slightly as SAF/HVO fell faster than the fossil fuel benchmarks.
Product Trends
SAF Neat HEFA Malacca Straits FOB averaged $2,653.53/mt, open $2,831.75 (1 Jun), close $2,599.25 (30 Jun), a +33.8% YoY increase ($1,982.56 Jun 2025).
A co-product of SAF production, HVO Class IV Malacca Straits FOB faced similar pricing dynamics averaging $2,929.65/mt, open $3,077.00 (1 Jun), close $2,863.25 (30 Jun) and a much larger increase of +45.0% YoY ($2,020.57 Jun 2025)
Both peaked 3 Jun (SAF $2,857.50, HVO $3,089.50) but reversed gains as crude collapsed mid-month; SAF bottomed at $2,426.50 on 18 Jun before recovering into month-end, while HVO bottomed later ($2,811.50, 26 Jun) and closed near its lows. The gradual oversupply of fossil jet due to a combination of demand destruction and refiners maximising jet yields would have disincentivised the purchase of SAF.
Feedstock Trends
- UCO Singapore Straits FOB averaged $1,157.50/mt, +1.6% MoM (+$17.88), +12.8% YoY; high $1,165.00 (26 Jun), low $1,140.00 (5 Jun).
- CPO Singapore Straits FOB (USD) averaged $1,114.62/mt, −1.9% MoM (−$21.96) but +18.8% YoY ($938.51 Jun 2025); high $1,161.37 (3 Jun), low $1,091.01. Weaker crude prices reduce palm oil's competitiveness as a fossil-fuel substitute, dragging down demand. Stronger Ringgit and falling soybean oil prices, also weighed on palm oil values.
Cross-Commodity Dynamics
SAF green premium (SAF minus Jet) averaged ~$1,657.6/mt vs May's ~$1,716.4 (−3.4%); it compressed to $1,539.28 on 18 Jun as SAF fell faster than an already-depressed jet, then recovered to $1,709.13 by 30 Jun.
HVO green premium (HVO minus Gasoil) averaged ~$1,988/mt vs May's ~$2,055 (−3.3%), roughly flat intra-month as HVO and gasoil fell together.
Something to Watch
- The Indonesia B50 mandate begins on 1 July with retailers having a 3-month transition period to clear out existing B40 stockpiles. If the increase in biodiesel % is attained, the market will observe an increase in palm pricing, especially from October onwards when B40 stockpiles have been utilized and the demand for palm surges.
- El Nino weather patterns are expected to disrupt the production and yields of palm oil, further uplifting CPO prices.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 2-30 June 2026
