June Pricing Analysis - European Jet

Jet CIF NWE Cargoes fell from $1,179.50/mt to $978.50/mt in June, a 17% intramonth decline, as ceasefire terms agreed between the US and Iran on 12-Jun and a formal memorandum reopening the Strait of Hormuz (signed 15-19 Jun) unwound the war-risk premium built up since March. Monthly average fell 19.8% versus May to $1,032.60/mt, though it remains 43.3% above June 2025. The Jet-ULSD regrade inverted for the first time this year, from +$4.49/bbl (3-Jun) to -$1.85/bbl (26-Jun), as jet's conflict premium eroded faster than diesel's. The forward curve M1-M12 backwardation compressed 34% to $162.00/mt as the front repriced the de-escalation while the back end held on residual supply-chain uncertainty. Despite the price collapse, ARA jet stocks remain roughly a third below February levels, keeping physical tightness a live risk into peak summer demand.

Market Activity

• Bid/offer ratio of 0.47 (7 bids, 15 offers) across 23 transactions in June, sellers outnumbering buyers roughly 2:1.
• BP Oil International top seller (9 transactions) and top buyer (7 transactions).
• Gunvor SA second-largest seller (5 transactions).
• Shell Trading Rotterdam second-largest buyer (1 transaction).
• BP's presence on both sides reads as intermediary positioning around the repricing, not directional flow.
• Gunvor's selling is consistent with inventory monetisation as backwardation compressed through the month.

Price Action

• Opened at $1,179.50/mt (1-Jun); W23-W24 held a slow grind near $1,140/mt before the ceasefire news.
• US and Iran agreed 60-day ceasefire terms on 12-Jun; FOB Barges fell $87.00/mt that session, June's largest single-day move.
• W25 (15-19 Jun) averaged $958.85/mt, -13.5% WoW, as the Hormuz-reopening memorandum was signed by 19-Jun.
• Monthly low of $912.50/mt on 26-Jun; closed at $978.50/mt (30-Jun).
• MoM: June average $1,032.60/mt vs May $1,287.13/mt (-$254.53, -19.8%).
• YoY: June 2026 $1,032.60/mt vs June 2025 $720.83/mt (+$311.77, +43.3%).

Cross-Market Dynamics

• Jet crack vs Brent widened from +$47.10/bbl (1-Jun) to +$52.50/bbl (30-Jun) even as flat prices collapsed, since Brent fell 28.4% versus jet's 15.6% decline.
• Regrade (Jet CIF vs ULSD CIF, 7.89 bbl/mt) fell from +$4.49/bbl (3-Jun) to -$1.85/bbl (26-Jun), closing the month at -$0.90/bbl; monthly average +$0.99/bbl.
• Jet vs LSGO diff (CIF) fell from $106.25/mt (1-Jun) to $63.75/mt (30-Jun), tracking the same de-escalation.
• Spread inversion signals jet's conflict-specific risk premium eroding faster than the broader distillate complex.

Cross-Regional Dynamics

• NWE CIF premium over Singapore widened from -$0.24/bbl (8-Jun, brief inversion) to +$11.21/bbl (30-Jun); monthly average +$5.43/bbl.
• Singapore FOB fell from $138.05/bbl (2-Jun) to $112.82/bbl (30-Jun), a steeper decline than NWE over the same days.
• Asian markets sit geographically closer to Mideast Gulf supply and appear to be pricing in the fuller normalization of flows first.

Curve Structure

• M1-M2 backwardation narrowed from +$33.50/mt (1-Jun) to +$13.75/mt (30-Jun), a $19.75/mt compression.
• M1-M6 backwardation narrowed from +$147.50/mt to +$106.75/mt, down $40.75/mt.
• M1-M12 backwardation narrowed from +$244.50/mt to +$162.00/mt, down $82.50/mt (34%).
• M1 fell $181.00/mt (-15.6%) over June versus M12's $98.50/mt decline (-10.7%).

Price Volatility

• NWE CIF Cargoes: June CV 10.19% vs May 8.39% (+1.80pp MoM); NWE FOB Barges: 10.60% vs May 7.99% (+2.61pp); Singapore FOB Cargoes: 11.73% vs May 7.55% (+4.18pp), the sharpest re-acceleration of the three.
• Singapore CV exceeded both NWE grades in June despite being the lowest-volatility benchmark in Jan-26 through May-26; std dev widened from $90.42/mt (May) to $115.55/mt (June) while the mean fell from $1,197.03/mt to $984.68/mt, so both rising absolute dispersion and a lower price base pushed the ratio higher.
• All three grades remain below the March peak (NWE CIF 12.39%, NWE Barges 11.78%, Singapore 17.37%, the widest reading in the six-month window across all three); June is currently the second-highest month for CIF and Barges but only third-highest for Singapore, behind March and April (8.15%).
• NWE CIF and NWE Barges track closely all six months (max divergence 1.03pp, March), consistent with the two grades sharing the same regional supply pool; Singapore has diverged more sharply since March, tracking a wider band on both the high and low side.

Something To Watch

• The ceasefire is a 60-day framework, not a final deal; renewed Hormuz disruption would reignite the risk premium the market has just priced out. Monitor: negotiation progress and any Strait transit incidents ahead of the framework's expiry.
• ARA stocks remain well below the five-year average; watch weekly Insights Global releases for restocking versus a slide toward critical thresholds flagged earlier this year.
• US cargo flows into Europe dropped sharply in June as Middle East supply normalizes; watch whether Mideast Gulf barrels actually rematerialize into NWE or get absorbed first by closer Asian markets, per the NWE-Singapore premium.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 June.