The four big bunkering hubs pulled apart in June. Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston all fell between 14% and 19%, giving back the price spike that the Middle East conflict had caused back in March and following crude and fuel oil lower.
Fujairah did the opposite: it rose 20%, jumping above $1,260/mt mid-month before dropping back to close near $914/mt. The reason was a straightforward supply shortage. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz stopped the cargoes Fujairah needs from arriving, the port's fuel oil stocks fell to multi-year lows, and with barely any suppliers still holding stock, buyers had to pay record amounts to get fuel there. That shortage was specific to VLSFO, not fuel oil generally: HSFO actually got cheaper, so the Hi-Lo at Fujairah widened dramatically.
The Fujairah–Singapore differential, normally near zero, blew out to almost $390/mt on average, a complete reversal of the usual pattern; the fossil squeeze even pushed Fujairah B24 biodiesel below fossil VLSFO, turning the green premium negative.
Prices eased late in the month as relief cargoes arrived, so the number to watch is the Fujairah–Singapore differential, which tells you whether the shortage is easing or getting worse.
Price Action
Three hubs sold off while Fujairah squeezed the other way; the East gateway broke from the complex
- Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston all closed at or near their month lows, the signature of a complex-wide selloff rather than any single-hub event; the risk premium built in March bled out as crude and fuel oil eased.
- Fujairah alone rose, peaking at $1,263.25/mt on 10 June before falling back to a $914.00/mt close; the average sat well above both open and close because of the mid-month spike, not a sustained level.
- The move at Fujairah was a genuine regime shift, not noise: intra-month range widened to $349/mt against May's $134/mt, while the three other hubs compressed.
- Down-moves clustered mid-to-late month as the premium unwound (Singapore's largest single-session drop was −$65.75/mt on 15 June, Houston −$51.50/mt on 24 June), while Fujairah's largest move was a +$109.25/mt jump on 9 June, the two hubs moving in opposite directions on the same days.
Cross-Market Dynamics
The Fujairah Hi-Lo blew out on a VLSFO-only squeeze; Fujairah biodiesel fell below fossil VLSFO
- The Fujairah Hi-Lo blowout is entirely the low-sulphur leg: HSFO actually fell over the month (avg $696 to $610/mt) while VLSFO squeezed, so the spread is measuring a blendstock-specific crunch, not a fuel oil rally.
- The Singapore Hi-Lo widened far more modestly; here the driver is HSFO falling faster than VLSFO, the mirror image of Fujairah.
- Singapore B24 biodiesel fell to $879/mt on average, yet its green premium over the fossil FO 0.5% benchmark widened (to $264/mt at month-end); the fossil price dropped faster than the blend, so the wider premium is mechanical and not a decarbonization demand signal.
- Fujairah B24 averaged around $830/mt while fossil VLSFO there squeezed to $1,107/mt, leaving the biofuel blend roughly $277/mt cheaper than the fossil grade on a delivered basis; the energy-equivalent adjustment narrows that gap but does not close it, though B24 volumes are too thin to absorb any displaced fossil demand.
Cross-Regional Dynamics
Fujairah inverted its normal discount to Singapore and became the most expensive hub in the set
- Fujairah normally trades near flat to a small discount to Singapore (a year ago it sat about $9/mt below), so the swing to a near-$390/mt premium is a structural inversion, not a spike within a familiar range.
- Fujairah was the most expensive global VLSFO hub and Rotterdam the cheapest, the widest East/West dislocation in the set; the arb to pull west-of-Suez barrels East opened wide as a result.
- The mechanism was import loss stranding Fujairah without replenishment, forcing delivered premiums to record levels; relief cargoes arriving mid-month began compressing the differential into month-end.
- Singapore held only a modest premium to Rotterdam throughout, absorbing rerouted demand and balancing cargoes without a Fujairah-style crunch, which capped how far it could decouple from the West.
Price Volatility
Volatility re-accelerated at all four hubs in June, the second spike of 2026 after March, but with opposite drivers by port
- Volatility roughly doubled to tripled month-on-month at every hub after the calm of April and May, led by Fujairah (nearly 3x, off the lowest May base of the group) and Houston (about 2x).
- June was the second-highest reading of the six months everywhere, but stayed well below the March war-spike peak, when Singapore and Fujairah both ran near 18-20%; the market is choppy again, not disorderly the way it was in March.
- The June volatility has two separate sources: Fujairah's came from the one-directional squeeze higher, while Singapore, Rotterdam and Houston re-volatilised on the selloff; the same elevated CV reflects opposite moves.
- Hedging models recalibrated to May's low-4% readings understate June risk by roughly 2x at Rotterdam and Singapore and close to 3x at Fujairah; bunker buyers at Fujairah in particular should widen procurement timing windows until the CV settles back toward the 4-5% range.
Something To Watch
- Fujairah–Singapore VLSFO differential as the squeeze signal:
- Observation: the premium closed the month around $270/mt, well off the mid-month extreme but still far above its normal near-flat level.
- Why it matters: compression back toward $100/mt would signal replenishment cargoes have restored the Fujairah stem pool and the squeeze is resolving, while a re-widening past $300/mt would signal renewed import loss and another delivered-premium spike.
- What to monitor: the weekly Fujairah–Singapore close, Fujairah residual inventory releases, and confirmed cargo arrivals alongside Strait of Hormuz transit status.
- Fujairah biodiesel trading below fossil VLSFO as an economics flag:
- Observation: Fujairah B24 sat well below fossil VLSFO through June, an unusual inversion.
- Why it matters: while fossil VLSFO stays squeezed, biofuel blends are the cheaper delivered option at the hub on a headline basis, which can pull incremental B24 inquiry if it persists; it unwinds as fossil VLSFO normalizes.
- What to monitor: the Fujairah VLSFO-to-B24 spread weekly and B24 stem availability at the hub.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 June 2026.
