The Strait of Hormuz closure lifted US refinery margins and pulled product exports (EIA); when crude re-priced lower on the mid-June de-escalation, the crack widened while flat RBOB sat still. NYH 3-2-1 closed $58.11 and averaged $47.28/bbl, +7.8% MoM, while flat RBOB NYH held a 303.11 cpg average on a 2.83% CV, its quietest since February. The lift was credited chiefly to diesel and jet, so gasoline rode the same refinery-margin and export bid, not a proven demand surge. On the gas leg, ethane rose alone at +12.8% MoM while the butanes, propane and natural gasoline tracked the softer LPG barrel lower; the cracks split PADD 1 from PADD 2, NYH +7.8% against Chicago -27.4% MoM.
Market Activity
- Trade data for the NA light ends windows was not included this month.
Price Action
- With nothing gasoline-specific behind it, flat RBOB rode crude lower to 303.11 cpg, -12.3% MoM and +41.0% YoY.
- The refinery-margin and export lift showed up in the crack: NYH 3-2-1 climbed W1 $41.8 to W5 $60.2, close $58.11 vs $44.0 open, +7.8% MoM.
- Premium Suboctane Group 3 held better than base grades, falling least at -8.5% MoM vs -12 to -15% for the base grades.
Cross-Market Dynamics
- A firm Henry Hub raised the BTU-parity floor under ethane, lifting it alone to 22.94 cpg, +12.8% MoM, while the heavier NGLs tracked the softer LPG barrel and a seasonal propane/butane inventory rebuild lower: propane -8.2%, isobutane -16.9%, n-butane -19.2%, natural gasoline -21.2% MoM.
- Alky economics firmed as isobutane held better, the iso-normal spread widening to +5.5 cpg (isobutane $1.0436 vs n-butane $0.9887).
- Crack CV 15.15% vs flat RBOB 2.83%: June risk sat in margin, not flat. Flat RBOB is crude beta, so size the crack.
Cross-Regional Dynamics
- The coast held the refinery-margin bid while the landlocked Midcon crack fell off May's $60.7 peak: NYH 3-2-1 +7.8% vs Chicago 6-3-2-1 -27.4% MoM, Colonial line space the tell on Gulf-to-East pull.
- Chicago's unwind stayed orderly: 6-3-2-1 fell 27.4% on a 6.44% CV, its lowest of the year to date: an orderly unwind, no snap to fade.
Curve Structure
- Backwardation widened at every tenor (M1-M6 +58.3 to +76.8 cpg) as the back repriced lower faster than the front; not a bull steepen since the prompt fell too.
- Summer pull held the prompt while the strip priced autumn softness; carry favours long prompt vs short M6, and M6 below M12 is the usual summer-over-winter shape.
Price Volatility
- RBOB flat CV 2.83% (second-lowest of the year to date) vs crack CV 15.15% (near double May's 8.40%): a flat-vol hedge understated crack risk by roughly 5x. Rehedge on the crack.
Something To Watch
- NYH 3-2-1 momentum: the crack closed at $58.11/bbl vs a $41.8 W1 average. Why it matters: a hold above $58 keeps the refinery-margin bid; a fade toward $42 signals the crack reconnecting with flat price. Monitor: weekly 3-2-1 close; EIA gasoline stocks and product-supplied vs the 5-year band.
- Ethane BTU-parity floor: ethane the only NGL up, +12.8% MoM. Why it matters: a firm Henry Hub holds the parity floor; a gas selloff pulls the only NGL bid out. Monitor: Belvieu ethane vs Henry Hub on a BTU basis; EIA ethane stocks.
- PADD 1 vs PADD 2 divergence: NYH crack +7.8% MoM vs Chicago -27.4%. Why it matters: coastal strength may reflect a Gulf-to-East pull; convergence would signal it fading. Monitor: Colonial line space turning positive cpg; weekly NYH vs Chicago crack.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 30 June 2026.
