June Pricing Analytics - European Gasoil

European gasoil prices collapsed in June as the US-Iran ceasefire and the agreed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unwound four months of war-risk premium. ULSD 10ppm NWE CIF Cargoes fell from $1,076/MT (1-Jun) to $933/MT (30-Jun), a 13.3% open-to-close decline, with a monthly average of $968.30/MT, down 15.8% MoM from May's $1,149.58/MT but still up 44.2% YoY against June 2025's $671.33/MT. The steepest leg came in Week 3 (15-19 Jun), when ULSD CIF fell 11.8% WoW as the US and Iran signed a deal to end their war and reopen Hormuz. Even as flat price fell with Brent (down from $99.92/bbl to $71.52/bbl over the month), the ULSD Barges crack versus Brent widened from $45.91/bbl to $50.63/bbl and LSGO M1-M2 structure stayed in outright contango throughout June, a sign the front-end scarcity premium had fully drained. Gasoil 0.1% MED CIF pulled further ahead of its NWE CIF counterpart, its premium over LSGO widening from $7.50/MT to $14.75/MT while NWE Cargoes deepened to a $15.50/MT discount, showing Mediterranean import demand held up better than Northwest Europe as the crisis premium unwound.

Marketing Activity

• 969 transactions across European inland ULSD/gasoil grades (DE 10ppm, FR SUM, IT SUM, UK SUM) in June, bid/offer ratio of 1.09 (454 bids vs 418 offers).
• Shell Trading Rotterdam led sellers (137 trades), then TotalEnergies (78) and BP Oil International (48): refiner selling, consistent with balancing short gasoil yield into a falling market rather than a demand signal.
• Vitol (102), Trafigura (99) and Glencore (96) led buyers: trading-house positioning, not directional flow, likely relative-value plays as cracks widened even as flat price fell.

Price Action

• Opened June at $1,076/MT (1-Jun), still carrying the war-risk premium built since the conflict began in late February.
• Largest single-day move: -$68.75/MT (-6.6%) on 12-Jun, from $1,039 to $970.25/MT, as reports of an imminent US-Iran ceasefire circulated.
• Week 3 (15-19 Jun) saw the sharpest decline, -11.8% WoW to $907/MT, coinciding with the 15-Jun agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Monthly low of $870.50/MT on 18-Jun, the day the ceasefire-extension deal was signed and Brent fell a further 2.3%.
• Partial rebound into month-end: 29-30 Jun averaged $921.63/MT, +3.8% WoW, after Trump warned of renewed military action against Iran.
• Closed at $933/MT (30-Jun); monthly high of $1,101.75/MT (3-Jun) was the lowest monthly high since February, confirming the premium was already fading before the ceasefire.
• MoM: $968.30/MT vs May $1,149.58/MT (-$181.28, -15.8%). YoY: vs June 2025 $671.33/MT (+$296.97, +44.2%).

Cross-Market Dynamics

• Jet held the top price, averaging $1,033.27/MT (high $1,202.50/MT on 3-Jun, low $918.25/MT on 18-Jun), tracking the same unwind as diesel and gasoil.
• ULSD Barges vs Brent crack widened from $45.91/bbl to $50.63/bbl (avg $44.12/bbl); Gasoil 0.1% CIF vs Brent widened from $44.33/bbl to $49.56/bbl (avg $42.74/bbl).
• Crack expansion despite falling flat price: Dated Brent fell 28.4% over the month ($99.92 to $71.52/bbl) while gasoil and diesel fell only 13-14%, so refined product held up better than crude as the war premium drained faster from crude than from the tighter middle-distillate balance.

Cross-Regional Dynamics

• Gasoil 0.1% MED CIF premium over LSGO rose from $7.50/MT (1-Jun) to $14.75/MT (30-Jun); NWE CIF Cargoes deepened from a $13.50/MT to a $15.50/MT discount over the same period.
• MED-NWE spread widened roughly $9.25/MT over the month, the clearest regional pinch signal of the year to date.
• Cargo-barge scarcity tax narrowed: Gasoil 0.1% CIF-minus-Barges diff fell from $33.00/MT (1-Jun) to $20.50/MT (30-Jun) as import-side scarcity eased with the Hormuz reopening.

Curve Structure

• M1-M2 opened at +$29.50/MT (1-Jun), compressed to a monthly low of +$10.75/MT (18-Jun, the same day flat price bottomed), then widened back to +$23.75/MT by close.
• Structure never flipped to backwardation; M1-M2 is typically backwardated by a few dollars by default, so contango of this size points to genuine front-end oversupply, not routine settlement mechanics.
• Monthly average +$18.57/MT, intra-month range $19.75/MT, consistent with Hormuz reopening removing the need to pay up for prompt cargo cover.

Price Volatility

Something To Watch

• Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes still a fraction of pre-conflict levels; watch for a return toward baseline through Q3.
• 60-day US-Iran truce (signed 17/18-Jun) expires mid-August; a breakdown would likely re-inject premium into LSGO and cracks.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 June 2026.