NYH ULSD barge flat fell 11.4% open-to-close to 353.9 cpg, but the entire move was a single final-week leg (W4 -37.3 cpg WoW) and it was crude-led: the ULSD-WTI crack held near $64/bbl (May avg $64.3 vs April $64.1), so the diesel margin never participated in the sell-off. The month's real signal was jet. The Colonial Jet 54-WTI crack collapsed 25% to $50.16/bbl, and the jet-diesel crack differential flipped from +$2.9/bbl in April to -$14.1/bbl in May, counter to the seasonal flying-season ramp. Diesel held the top of the barrel while jet dropped to the bottom. NYH barge basis held a small, compressing +3.6 cpg premium with no PADD 1 prompt tightness, and intra-month range halved versus April even as the level fell. Watch the jet-diesel differential for the yield switch and the ULSD-WTI crack for whether diesel keeps holding as crude falls; hurricane season opening 1 June with jet already discounted skews the supply-shock risk toward a diesel crack spike.
Price Trends
Flat ULSD NYH fell 11.4% open-to-close to 353.9 cpg, but the drop was confined to the final week and was crude-led.
- NYH ULSD barge opened 399.6 cpg (1 May), closed 353.9 cpg (29 May), avg 393.4 cpg vs April 397.6 cpg (-1.1% MoM); YoY not queried this cycle.
- Monthly high 419.4 cpg (12 May), low 353.9 cpg (29 May); intra-month range 65.5 cpg, roughly half April's 118.5 cpg, a volatility compression even as the level fell.
- Weekly walk: W1 397.8, W2 402.9 (+5.1 WoW), W3 401.9 (-1.0 WoW), W4 364.6 (-37.3 WoW); flat held near 400 cpg for three weeks, then broke 37 cpg lower in the final week.
- Largest single-session move -20.7 cpg on 13 May (prior day 419.4 cpg), unwinding the mid-month spike rather than a fresh leg.
- NYH barge basis to the ULSD screen held a small premium: April avg +4.8 cpg, May avg +3.6 cpg (-1.2 cpg MoM); dipped to -2.5 cpg around 15-19 May, then recovered to +5 to +6.5 cpg in W4; no PADD 1 prompt tightness in the print.
Cross-Commodity Dynamics
- ULSD NYH-WTI crack averaged $64.3/bbl (May) vs $64.1/bbl (April), +0.3%; the flat sell-off did not touch the diesel margin, confirming the move was crude-led, not distillate-specific.
- W3 crack ~$64.7/bbl eased only to ~$62.1/bbl in W4 against the -37 cpg flat collapse: the crack barely moved while flat fell, the cleanest confirmation the final-week break was WTI weakness.
- Jet 54 Colonial-WTI crack collapsed from $66.97/bbl (April) to $50.16/bbl (May), -25%, sliding from ~$52 early month to a $43.97/bbl low on 27 May.
- Jet-diesel crack differential (Colonial Jet 54-WTI minus NYH ULSD-WTI) flipped from +$2.9/bbl (April avg) to -$14.1/bbl (May avg), and from +$9.5 on 1 April to -$16.0 by 29 May; a negative differential points refinery yield toward diesel over jet.
- Barrel ranking: diesel moved to the top of the distillate barrel, jet to the bottom; the jet weakness ran counter to the flying-season ramp, and the cause is not identifiable from price data alone (no driver hunt run).
Something To Watch
- Jet-diesel differential as the yield switch:
- Observation: differential at -$14.1/bbl May avg, -$16.0 by 29 May.
- Why it matters: a negative differential favours diesel yield at the expense of jet; sustained, it tightens jet further and underpins the diesel crack; a snap back toward zero signals jet demand recovering into peak flying season.
- What to monitor: Colonial Jet 54-WTI vs NYH ULSD-WTI daily; TSA throughput.
- Diesel crack resilience against crude:
- Observation: ULSD-WTI crack held ~$64/bbl while flat fell 11% on WTI weakness.
- Why it matters: a crack holding while crude falls is distillate-supportive; if the crack starts following crude lower, that support is gone and flat has further downside.
- What to monitor: ULSD-WTI crack daily vs WTI prompt; EIA PADD 1 / PADD 3 distillate stocks (Wed 10:30 ET).
- NYH basis as the PADD 1 tightness gauge:
- Observation: basis a small +3.6 cpg premium, dipped negative mid-month, recovered in W4.
- Why it matters: a sustained move above ~+5 cpg signals export-arb economics opening and East Coast tightening; a slide negative signals length.
- What to monitor: NYH ULSD barge basis to screen daily; Colonial Line 16 line-space.
- Hurricane season opening (1 June):
- Observation: season starts with the diesel crack firm and jet deeply discounted.
- Why it matters: a Gulf refinery shut-in hits both, but with jet already discounted the asymmetric risk is a diesel crack spike; pre-season positioning starts now.
- What to monitor: NHC advisories; USGC refinery status (IIR / Genscape / Wood Mac); USGC waterborne ULSD basis.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 29 May 2026.
