SAF Neat HEFA Malacca FOB averaged $2,914.96/mt, +13.7% MoM and +67% YoY, a genuine step up that peaked at $2,981 on 18 May; HVO Class IV Malacca averaged $3,225.69/mt, +1.9% MoM and +71% YoY but rolled over through the month, closing ($3,085.50) below its 1 May open ($3,331.25). The headline move was a fossil sell-off: Jet Singapore FOB fell 24% and Gasoil 10ppm 20% MoM, blowing the green premium a blender or airline pays over fossil out to $1,718/mt for SAF (+75% MoM) and $2,068/mt for HVO (+21%). Traded cargoes also held $1,150 to $1,460/mt above modelled UCO production cost ($1,765/mt, flat MoM), a physical scarcity premium the cost models do not capture, while feedstocks were quiet (UCO $1,140, CPO $1,137, both flat MoM but up 14 to 26% YoY) and the modelled processing margin held near $625/mt.
Product Trends
- SAF Neat HEFA Malacca FOB averaged $2,914.96/mt, open $2,954.75 (1 May), close $2,872.75 (28 May); +13.7% MoM (Apr $2,562.65), +67.0% YoY ($1,745.25).
- HVO Class IV Malacca FOB averaged $3,225.69/mt, open $3,331.25 (1 May), close $3,085.50 (28 May); +1.9% MoM (Apr $3,164.99), +71.1% YoY ($1,885.40).
- HVO traded richer than SAF all month ($3,226 vs $2,915 avg); renewable diesel cargo commanded a premium over neat SAF in the Malacca market.
Feedstock Trends
- UCO Singapore Straits FOB averaged $1,139.63/mt, +0.7% MoM (+$7.93), +13.6% YoY; high $1,160 (15 May), low $1,118.50 (8 May) (weekly assessment, 4 prints).
- CPO Singapore Straits FOB (USD) averaged $1,136.58/mt, −0.8% MoM (−$9.67) but +25.5% YoY ($905.34 May 2025); high $1,177.53 (5 May), low $1,111.12 (14 May).
- UCO held marginally above CPO on the monthly average (+$3/mt), UCO firming while palm softened; the waste-feedstock premium persisted, keeping the UCO route the costlier feedstock.
Production Margins
- Production margin (UCO average cost model minus UCO feedstock) averaged $624.91/mt vs April's $632.74 (−$7.83, −1.2%); modelled processing economics were stable as the finished cost tracked feedstock one-for-one.
Cross-Commodity Dynamics
- Green premiums blew out as the fossil barrel sold off; traded renewables also held $1,150 to $1,460/mt above modelled cost.
- Fossil legs fell hard:
- Jet Singapore FOB −24.3% MoM (Apr $1,582.24 → May $1,197.03 avg; $1,327.90 open → $1,006.19 close).
- Gasoil 10ppm −20.5% (Apr $1,456.05 → May $1,158.00; $1,203.47 → $1,019.92)
- SAF green premium (SAF Malacca minus Jet) averaged $1,717.93/mt vs April's $980.41 (+75% MoM), widening from ~$1,627 (early May) to ~$1,867 (month-end) as SAF rose while jet fell.
- HVO green premium (HVO Malacca minus Gasoil) averaged $2,067.69/mt vs April's $1,708.94 (+21% MoM), roughly flat intra-month as HVO and gasoil fell together.
- Traded renewables sat far above modelled UCO production cost ($1,764.54/mt): SAF ~$1,150/mt over, HVO ~$1,461/mt over.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1-29 May
