May 2026 was a stable month for Guarantees of Origin. Total volume reached 21.6 TWh across 360 trades, up from 18.1 TWh in April. Activity was front-loaded: beginning of May accounted for 10.0 TWh and 150 trades. WSH dominated at 12.1 TWh (56% of volume). Prices were broadly stable for the main products in the EUR 1.72–1.90/MWh range. The standout was Swiss-origin Hydro for 2027 quarterly delivery, which traded up to EUR 9.26/MWh. The market remained offer-heavy: 4.7:1 offers vs. buds, consistent with April and indicating ample supply. Nuclear was active in W21 with 6 trades at EUR 0.08–0.12/MWh.
Market Activity
- 360 trades across 17 active days. Week 1 (May 4–8) was the dominant week with 150 trades and 10.0 TWh; Week 4 (May 26–27) was the lightest at 1.2 TWh.
- WSH: 169 trades, 12.1 TWh, the core liquidity instrument. Primarily 2026 vintage, with stable EUR 1.77–1.89 pricing across all weeks.
- Nordic Hydro: 37 trades, 2.4 TWh. Norwegian origin dominated (30 of 37 trades). Stable pricing EUR 1.68–1.96/MWh.
- Hydro (non-Nordic): 57 trades, 1.6 TWh. Swiss-origin quarterly 2027 trades drove the w-avg to EUR 2.376, with highs of EUR 9.26 (2027 Q1) and EUR 8.95 (2027 Q4).
- Renewable: 57 trades, 2.3 TWh. Stable EUR 1.85–1.90 in W19–21; softened to EUR 1.195 in W22 driven by end-of-month clearing at discounted levels.
- Wind: 23 trades, 1.5 TWh. Germany, Sweden, and Netherlands were key origins. W-avg EUR 2.175, ranging EUR 1.59–3.50.
- Solar: 10 trades, 199,384 MWh. All Solar/PV/Solar-PV grades consolidated. W-avg EUR 1.842.
- Nuclear: 7 trades, 1.5 TWh. Active only in W21–22. 5 of 7 trades for 2026 delivery at EUR 0.08–0.12/MWh.
Price Action
- WSH: Narrow range EUR 1.77–1.89/MWh all month. No directional move; traded as a core liquidity instrument.
- Nordic Hydro: Gradual drift from EUR 1.776 (W19) to EUR 1.724 (W22). Tight band, stable Norwegian supply.
- Hydro (non-Nordic): Most volatile product. W20 w-avg EUR 3.355 driven by Swiss quarterly 2027 Q1 at EUR 8.76–9.26. W22 retreated to EUR 1.494 as Swiss activity abated.
- Renewable: Stable EUR 1.85–1.90 in W19–21; notable W22 drop to EUR 1.195. Watch whether this is seasonal or a positioning artefact.
- Wind: Volatile across weeks, EUR 2.44 (W18, 1 trade), EUR 2.14 (W19), EUR 1.81 (W20), EUR 2.48 (W21), EUR 1.80 (W22). W21 high of EUR 3.50.
- Solar: Limited volume; w-avg sensitive to individual trades. W21 printed EUR 1.945 as the monthly high.
- Nuclear: Decoupled from renewables as expected. EUR 0.08–0.12/MWh throughout, no pricing trend.
- Vintage curve: 2026 was the most liquid vintage (10.3 TWh). Hydro 2027 at EUR 3.068 and Wind 2027 at EUR 3.008 reflect a clear forward premium. WSH 2027 remained anchored at EUR 1.852, consistent with a flat long-end basket curve. Hydro 2029–2030 printed EUR 5.78–6.05 on small quarterly volumes.
Cross-Market Dynamics
- Stable WSH and Nordic Hydro pricing is consistent with an absence of acute stress from power or energy market volatility.
- Swiss quarterly Hydro 2027 premium (EUR 8–9) may partly reflect seasonal hydro storage conditions or forward demand from industrial buyers seeking specific quarterly delivery profiles.
- Nuclear GO pricing (EUR 0.08–0.12/MWh) remains structurally disconnected from renewable products, consistent with surplus nuclear certificates relative to specific compliance demand.
Cross-Regional Dynamics
- Norway dominated Nordic Hydro supply (30 of 37 trades), consistent with its structural role as the primary hydro-certificate origin in the Nordic hub.
- Switzerland was the most notable origin story of the month: 9 Hydro trades with 2027 Q1 and Q4 quarterly delivery printing EUR 8.50–9.26/MWh, the highest prices seen in the GO market in May.
- European and AIB GC origins dominated WSH and Renewable activity (Europe: 104 WSH trades; AIB GC: 37 WSH trades), continuing their role as the default pan-European certificate basket.
- Wind origin diversification: Germany (4 trades), Sweden (4 trades), Netherlands (2 trades), plus Norway, Denmark, and AIB GC, broad geography, though individual volumes remain modest.
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1-29 May.
