SUMMARY
Bunker prices rose at all four reference ports in September as the renewed US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz lifted the fuel oil complex through W3. Singapore VLSFO averaged $872/mt (+6.0% MoM), its highest monthly average in the 13-month series, while Fujairah led at $939/mt (+15.9% MoM) as its import-driven shortage returned. The upstream curve bull steepened: NWE 3.5% Barges M1 rose 12.0% against M12's 3.7%, widening M1-M12 from $52/mt to $96/mt. Fujairah flipped from a $13/mt discount to Singapore in August to a $138/mt premium at month-end, and Singapore-Rotterdam averaged $189/mt as Singapore VLSFO lead times stretched to 13-17 days. HSFO outran VLSFO at three of four ports, pulling the Rotterdam Hi-Lo to $63/mt at close, below the $80/mt scrubber-economics level. Watch the Fujairah premium: it held through the W4-W5 easing, so the Gulf shortage is not moving with the flat price.
PRICE ACTION
CROSS-MARKET DYNAMICS
- Rotterdam HSFO rose 10.5% MoM, tracking the NWE 3.5% Barges M1 rally (+12.0%), against VLSFO's 4.6%; the Hi-Lo hit its September low of $56.75/mt (28-Sep) and closed at $63.00/mt, below the $80/mt level where scrubber economics weaken
- Singapore Hi-Lo closed at its September low of $115.00/mt (30-Sep), down from $230.00/mt (3-Sep) and now $15/mt above the $100/mt scrubber-payback level
- Fujairah Hi-Lo widened 28.0%, peaking at $310.75/mt (16-Sep), as the VLSFO shortage priced harder than HSFO
CROSS-REGIONAL DYNAMICS
- Fujairah-Singapore VLSFO swung from -$13.11/mt (August avg) to +$66.81/mt (September avg), widest +$143.75/mt on 28-Sep and +$137.50/mt at close; all grades at Fujairah stayed "super tight" as the Hormuz disruption cut fuel oil imports, with August bunker sales down 65.3% YoY
- Singapore-Rotterdam VLSFO widened from $169.55/mt to $189.39/mt (+11.7%), high $216.00/mt (21-Sep), as Singapore VLSFO lead times stretched from 12-15 days to 13-17 days on blending-component shortages and delayed Middle East cargoes; it eased to $173.00/mt at close, while the IFO380 diff closed at $121.00/mt (avg $111.13/mt)
- Rotterdam-Houston VLSFO discount nearly doubled to -$66.23/mt (low -$108.75/mt on 23-Sep), leaving Rotterdam the cheapest of the four ports
PRICE VOLATILITY
SOMETHING TO WATCH
- Fujairah premium over Singapore: +$137.50/mt on 30-Sep, after a September high of +$143.75/mt (28-Sep), with fuel oil imports still falling. The premium depends on cargoes reaching Fujairah through Hormuz; further widening pushes Gulf bunkering demand toward Singapore, where VLSFO stems already take 13-17 days. Monitor: weekly Fujairah-Singapore close; Hormuz transit counts; Fujairah September bunker sales.
- Rotterdam Hi-Lo below $80/mt: $63.00/mt on 30-Sep, down from $119.08/mt in August. A sustained read below $80/mt weakens scrubber economics on European trades and shifts demand back toward VLSFO. Monitor: weekly Rotterdam Hi-Lo close; NWE 3.5% Barges M1-M2.
- M1-M12 as the Hormuz premium gauge: $95.50/mt on 30-Sep, up from $52.00/mt. The W4 pullback showed how quickly bunkers follow the front of the curve. Monitor: M1-M12 back above $120/mt (premium rebuilding) or toward $52/mt (premium fading).
Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period covered by this monthly update.
.webp)
.webp)
.webp)
