September Pricing Analysis - Global Voluntary Carbon Markets

SUMMARY

CEEU closed September at $12.75/mt, the top of the $12.20 to $12.75/mt range it has held since the July rebound, rising 3.7% open to close even as the monthly average slipped 0.8% to $12.41/mt. The climb was step-wise and coincided with the first sustained run of executed CEEU trades: 17 in September against 1 in August, all from 15 September, with five on the final session. IATA's 18 September estimate of a 150 million unit gap between LoA-backed supply and Phase 1 demand frames the move; the CEEU premium over CCP Current widened from $5.75/mt to $6.30/mt across the month, keeping the bid inside the authorized pool rather than spilling into wider voluntary demand. The voluntary side printed flat, with CCP Current, Nature Based and NBS Avoidance unchanged in every session and no repricing through the 27 September EU claims deadline. The exception was the BeZero ladder, where AA fell 21.8% to $4.85/mt and dropped below BBB. A close above the $13.20/mt launch level is the next test for CEEU, with TAB's Phase 2 recommendations due in October/November.

MARKET ACTIVITY

• CEEU executed trades rose to 17 from 1 in August (16 in exchange-traded Phase 1 futures, 1 spot); all 17 printed from 15 September, with 12 in the final six sessions and 5 on 30 September, the session CEEU stepped $0.15/mt to $12.75/mt
• CEEU spot offers rose to 52 from 20 and bids to 60 from 32; offer depth grew faster than bids, consistent with authorized supply being shown into rising demand rather than demand outrunning supply
• Futures bids and offers rose to 132 from 79, alongside ICE's liquidity provider program for CORSIA contracts (June 2026 to May 2027), which rewards continuous two-sided quoting; part of the count reflects incentivized quoting depth
• Voluntary project activity stayed offer-dominated: 12,748 offers against 249 bids and 5 trades (August: 11,377, 255 and 2)

PRICE ACTION

• CEEU averaged $12.41/mt (-0.8% MoM) but rose 3.7% open to close, from $12.30/mt (1 Sep) to $12.75/mt (30 Sep); the monthly average understates a month that ended at the range top
• Low of $12.20/mt (7 Sep) tested the range floor; the close sits 3.4% below the $13.20/mt April launch and 35.6% above the $9.40/mt June low
• No session moved more than $0.15/mt; the gain built across W3 to W5 in small steps, the orderly pattern of coordinated procurement rather than a single repricing session
• Voluntary benchmarks printed flat in all 22 sessions: CCP Current $6.45/mt (+7.5% MoM, entirely the 27 August step), Nature Based $17.95/mt, NBS Avoidance $6.85/mt, IFM $16.15/mt, Renewable Energy $0.65/mt

CEEU (GX0022538)

CROSS-MARKET DYNAMICS

• CEEU premium over CCP Current averaged $5.96/mt against $6.51/mt in August; the narrowing traces to CCP Current's 27 August step, not CEEU weakness, and within the month the premium widened from $5.75/mt (7 Sep) to $6.30/mt (30 Sep) as CEEU rose against a flat voluntary benchmark
• IATA (18 Sep) estimates 72 million units are covered by 42 CORSIA-compatible LoAs as of August, against airline demand above 200 million units by January 2028, a gap of around 150 million units to fill in 15 months; the late-month CEEU climb and trade cluster are consistent with that gap being priced
• The BeZero quality ladder inverted: AA fell $1.35/mt to $4.85/mt on 8 September and BBB rose $1.10/mt to $4.90/mt on 14 September, leaving AA $0.05/mt below BBB for 13 sessions; AA minus A compressed to $0.40/mt from a $1.90/mt August average
• The EU Empowering Consumers Directive ban on offset-based product neutrality claims applied from 27 September; NBS Avoidance and CCP Current printed flat through the date, and the removal over avoidance premium held at $14.45/mt, unchanged from the August close

BeZero rating tiers

CROSS-REGIONAL DYNAMICS

• Turkish Wind and Indian Wind printed $0.65/mt in every August and September session, level with Renewable Energy at $0.65/mt; origin carries no premium at the renewable energy floor, and neither series has shown price discovery in two months

DATA & POSITIONING

• CCP 2021 vintage fell $0.15/mt to $3.10/mt on 8 September, the same session BeZero AA stepped down; Current vs 2021 widened to $3.35/mt while the 2022 and 2020 vintages held

CCP vintage structure

PRICE VOLATILITY

• CEEU CV fell to 1.14%, the lowest since the April launch, against 12.27% in July; the range is compressing toward its top rather than breaking
• Five voluntary series printed 0.00%, reflecting no new price information rather than calm trading
• BeZero AA (11.23%) and BBB (13.11%) volatility comes entirely from single-session steps on 8 and 14 September
• April based on 10 sessions from 17 April launch.

SOMETHING TO WATCH

• CEEU at the range top:
  • Observation: CEEU closed at $12.75/mt, the top of its three-month range, with 17 executed trades concentrated in late September
  • Why it matters: a close above the $13.20/mt launch level would mark deadline-driven airline buying taking over; a return below $12.20/mt would signal supply again outpacing demand
  • What to monitor: daily CEEU against $13.20/mt; CEEU executed trade counts; the CEEU premium over CCP Current, currently $6.30/mt
• TAB Phase 2 recommendations:
  • Observation: TAB presents its 2026-cycle recommendations to the ICAO Council in October/November
  • Why it matters: the decision sets which programs and vintages supply 2027 to 2029, defining the eligible pool behind CEEU after Phase 1
  • What to monitor: the ICAO Council decision; any change to Phase 1 vintages; whether PACM units are approved
• LoA pipeline:
  • Observation: 42 LoAs cover 72 million units against Phase 1 demand above 200 million (IATA, 18 Sep)
  • Why it matters: LoA pace decides whether authorized supply arrives before airline buying concentrates into the January 2028 deadline
  • What to monitor: the next IATA supply update; new host-country authorizations, especially from large REDD+ and cookstove hosts

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1 to 30 September 2026.