September Pricing Analysis - North America Light Ends

SUMMARY

RBOB NYH barges averaged 356.36 c/gal, up 9.13% on August, and switched to winter grade on 16 September, two weeks after Gulf CBOB, because New York kept its own summer rule to 15 September; about 16.6 c/gal of that day's fall was the grade change. With both coasts on winter grade, New York's premium over Gulf CBOB closed at 3.25 c/gal and Colonial Line 1 line space stayed negative. Octane tightened: alkylate averaged 85.13 c/gal over Gulf CBOB against 48.60 in August. Refinery problems lifted Chicago after the Joliet refinery lost power on 13 September, and Los Angeles, where CARBOB rose 19.20%.

MARKET ACTIVITY

Volume moved into the A3 and A4 grades as Gulf CBOB switched on 1 September.

• On the aggregate of the month's trades (not published index volumes), CBOB A3 and A4 traded 55.18 million bbl against 12.21 million in August, while A2 fell 94.4% to 2,369,500 bbl. RBOB F grades traded 1,505,000 bbl.

PRICE ACTION

• RBOB NYH averaged 9.13% above August and ended September at its low after the 16 September switch.
• RBOB NYH barges averaged 356.36 c/gal against 326.53 (+9.13% MoM; +71.63% YoY against 207.64); high 381.52 on 15 Sep, low 326.55 on 30 Sep.
• New York barge RVP stepped from 7.40 to 13.50 psi for RBOB (7.80 to 12.90 for CBOB) on 16 Sep. RBOB NYH fell 24.02 c/gal that day against 7.45 for Colonial Pasadena CBOB A, which did not change grade: about 16.6 c/gal was the grade change.
• Under EPA's waiver, Colonial Pasadena CBOB A moved to winter grade on 1 Sep with no price gap and averaged 330.08 c/gal (+11.17%).

CROSS-MARKET DYNAMICS

• Octane outran the base grade: alkylate averaged 85.13 c/gal over Gulf CBOB against 48.60 in August.
• Alkylate's premium over Colonial Pasadena CBOB A closed at its monthly high of 113.48 c/gal on 30 Sep and reformate's at 185.48; reformate gained 72.31 c/gal on 15 Sep.
• Unlike August, the finished grades priced it too: premium over regular averaged 44.81 c/gal at NYH barges (August 31.13) and 37.61 at Pasadena (August 32.50).
• The Joliet outage took a reformer and an FCC unit, both octane sources, offline from 13 Sep until restarts began on 21 Sep.
• The D6 RIN averaged 206.28 c/gal (-1.64%) and closed at 199.00 after EPA exempted 1.76 billion 2025 RINs.

CROSS-REGIONAL DYNAMICS

• New York lost its premium over the Gulf while outages lifted Chicago and Los Angeles.
• From 16 Sep, CBOB at NYH barges averaged 14.73 c/gal over Colonial Pasadena CBOB A (26.88 before) and closed 3.25 over. Line 1 gasoline line space was negative on 13 of the 14 sessions from 11 Sep.
• Chicago CBOB rose 30.00 c/gal on 15 Sep, two days after Joliet lost power, and peaked at 377.23 on 17 Sep when floodwater delayed the restart.
• CARBOB Los Angeles averaged 85.79 c/gal over Colonial Pasadena CBOB A (August 51.98), peaking at 468.70 on 23 Sep amid Los Angeles refinery flaring and start-up events and lower California output (CEC).

CURVE STRUCTURE

Backwardation widening at Pasadena: M1-M12 widened 11.20 c/gal.

• M1 rose 5.42 c/gal while M12 fell 5.78. The spring return to summer grade sits inside M6 and beyond, so read the direction rather than the level.

PRICE VOLATILITY

The base grades stayed quiet while reformate's dispersion doubled.

• RBOB NYH fell to 3.82 from 5.86 across the switch, while reformate rose to 10.39, its highest of the six months, so the price risk sat in octane.

SOMETHING TO WATCH

• The octane premium after Joliet:
  • Observation: alkylate closed 113.48 c/gal and reformate 185.48 over Gulf CBOB A on 30 Sep, monthly highs after Joliet was back online by 26 Sep; premium over regular closed at 50.00 at NYH barges and 50.37 at Pasadena.
  • Why it matters: if the premium holds with Joliet back, winter blending is short of octane, not volume.
  • What to monitor: alkylate and reformate against Gulf CBOB A; premium over regular at both coasts.
• New York against the Gulf:
  • Observation: CBOB NYH barges closed 3.25 c/gal over Gulf CBOB A; Line 1 line space stayed negative.
  • Why it matters: with nothing paid for pipeline space, New York is likely to price near Gulf parity until the spread reopens.
  • What to monitor: Line 1 line space returning above zero; CBOB NYH barges against Gulf CBOB A.
• West Coast after the summer-blend suspension:
  • Observation: California suspended its summer-blend rule from 28 Sep; CARBOB Los Angeles closed at 436.05 c/gal.
  • Why it matters: an early winter blend adds supply to a market that rose 19.20% in September.
  • What to monitor: CARBOB Los Angeles against Gulf CBOB A; CEC weekly California output and stocks.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period covered by this monthly update.