U.S. physical natural gas prices are higher on U.S.–Iran conflict risk, with no direct impact to domestic supply flows.
- Prices holding elevated across hubs with limited basis movement: Henry Hub remains near ~$3.00/MMBtu (+5% vs. ~$2.86 pre-conflict). SoCal Citygate (~$3.30) and Chicago CG (~$3.05) are tracking HH closely, leaving basis largely unchanged. Dominion South (~$1.90) continues to reflect Appalachian oversupply, keeping its basis wide.
- No direct U.S. supply disruption: The U.S. has no import or transit exposure to the affected region; current price strength reflects geopolitical repricing tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict rather than physical flow impacts.
- Strait status: In June 2025, prices spiked while the Strait remained open and retraced within days; with the Strait now closed, prompt-month prices remain elevated.
- Curve response: Prompt contracts have advanced more than deferred contracts, steepening the front of the curve and widening near-term spreads amid the U.S.–Iran conflict.
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