April Recap - Asia & Middle East Crude

Renewed market reactions to potential ceasefire developments weighed on Dubai outright prices, which fell by $23.04/bbl month-on-month to average $105.74/bbl in April. Prices were volatile throughout the month, largely driven by Donald Trump’s Truth Social posts threatening strikes on Iran, followed by extensions of pauses ahead of peace talks and repeated ceasefire renewals that shifted market sentiment. The Dubai M1/M3 structure weakened sharply, averaging $13.83/bbl compared with $38.04/bbl in March, as market participants remained cautious about purchasing Middle Eastern crude via the Dubai partials mechanism. Monthly convergences also declined significantly, falling from 82 in March to 10 in April, all involving Oman.

Market Activity

• 277 Dubai Partials traded as of 30 Apr vs March’s 1,559 (-82%); 10 convergences vs 82 in March, all Oman, all June loading; buy-side intermediaries: TotalEnergies (109), Vitol (92), Trafigura (26), Mercuria (20), BP (16).
  
  • TotalEnergies partial share fell from 93% of buy-side in March to 39% in April; Vitol’s emergence at 92 partials reflects intermediary redistribution of available Middle East barrels, not a demand regime change.
• Sell-side: Unipec dominant (137 partials), Shell second (106), BP third (16); Reliance (6), Shenghong (6), Mitsui (2), Glencore (2) also active; Unipec and Shell combined represent 88% of sell-side volume.
• Only 10 convergences recorded, this was down sharply from 82 in March; all Oman for June loading.

Price Action

• Dubai opened $108.90/bbl (1 Apr), closed $112.25/bbl (30 Apr), avg $105.74/bbl vs March $128.78/bbl (-$23.04/bbl, -17.9% MoM); YoY vs April 2025 $68.50/bbl (+54.4%); intra-month range $29.54/bbl vs March’s $88.95/bbl.
• Monthly low of $93.66/bbl on 21 Apr, after prices fell sharply following Iran's 17 Apr announcement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; despite the reclosure within 24 hours, the market failed to recover the earlier losses, as the initial post-assessment sell-off outweighed any subsequent bullish reaction; price was further pressured by expectations of renewed peace talks between Iran and US.
• W5 (27–30 Apr) recovered to $107.54/bbl (+6.6% WoW), closing the month at $112.25/bbl on 30 Apr as geopolitical risk fears intensified following Axios reports that Trump was set to be briefed by the head of US Central Command on potential military options against Iran.

Cross-Market Dynamics

• Dubai M1 and GME Oman M1 converged sharply, with the average GME Oman discount to Dubai narrowing to $1.34/bbl in April from $4.73/bbl in March.
• IFAD Murban averaged $104.44/bbl MTD - $1.30/bbl below Dubai on average, as buying activity of Murban on the IFAD exchange was heard to be lower compared to the Dubai window.
• Spot trading of Dubai window crude picked up vs March with 16 Oman spot trades recorded in April, TotalEnergies (4) and Vitol (4) were the dominant buyers; Unipec (6) and Shell (5) main sellers; 7 Murban spot trades with Indian refiners Cosmo, IOC, BPCL, HPCL as buyers; Vietnam's Nghi Son Refinery (NSRP) purchased Oman (its first non-Kuwaiti crude) alongside a separate Basrah Medium cargo.

Cross-Regional Dynamics

• Brent-Dubai EFS averaged $11.51/bbl vs March average $9.12/bbl (+$2.39/bbl MoM); spiked to $16.69/bbl on 7-Apr before collapsing to $6.73/bbl (15-Apr) on ceasefire news; surged to a new all-time record of $20.81/bbl on 30-Apr as renewed escalation fears drove Atlantic Basin demand.
• Early April saw steep backwardation and strong spot pricing in NWE on tight crude supply; WTI bid-dominated (21 bids vs zero offers) in early April before flipping to 28 offers vs 3 bids by mid-month; Dated Brent effectively set by WTI Midland for much of late April.

Curve Structure

• Dubai Swaps curve remained in steep backwardation throughout April - M1 rose from $95.55/bbl (1-Apr) to $110.11/bbl (30-Apr) amid renewed escalation fears.
• M1-M6 steepened from $15.82/bbl (1-Apr) to $20.28/bbl (30-Apr); M1-M12 widened further from $20.40/bbl to $27.79/bbl signalling market pricing in prolonged disruption with no expectation of full Hormuz normalisation within the year.
• Entire curve shifted higher into month-end back months gained $10-15/bbl from their April lows; M3 broke back above $100/bbl on 30-Apr.

‍Price Volatility

• April CV of 6.67% significant retreat from March's 21.72% but still well above the 1.68–3.70% pre-war range; driven by weekly oscillation between ceasefire optimism and Hormuz open/reclose cycles.
• Intra-month range of $29.54/bbl vs March's $88.95/bbl; single largest move on 8-Apr ceasefire announcement.
• Volatility regime remains structurally elevated — every month since the war began has exceeded the pre-war peak of 3.70% (Jan-26).

Something to Watch

• Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz in exchange for deferring nuclear talks is under US review. Trump sceptical as Rubio confirmed US will not accept Iran retaining control or imposing tolls; outcome will set the tone for May.
• UAE's exit from OPEC effective 1 May removes a key swing producer, freeing Abu Dhabi to raise output without quota constraints; if the UAE moves to maximise production, additional barrels entering an already disrupted market could weigh on flat price, though the near-term impact depends on how quickly UAE capacity is deployed and whether other OPEC members absorb the quota headroom.
• Houthi threat to Bab el-Mandeb and the Saudi East-West pipeline (~5mn b/d to Yanbu) remains a secondary supply risk alongside Hormuz.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 April 2026.