April Recap - European Crude

European crude rallied further in April as the Strait of Hormuz remained functionally closed, with Dated Brent averaging $120.31/bbl (1–30 Apr), up $16.62/bbl (+16.0%) MoM vs March's $103.69/bbl and +$52.56/bbl (+77.6%) YoY. Two sharp intraday selloffs on Apr 8 (-$15.13/bbl on the US-Iran ceasefire announcement) and Apr 17 (low of $89.78/bbl on Iran's brief strait-opening declaration) were both rapidly reversed as diplomacy stalled and the US naval blockade was confirmed ongoing. Physical differentials reached record levels: all seven BFOET grades averaged $11.62–$17.33/bbl above the North Sea Prompt Strip (vs $2.41–$6.12/bbl in March), with WTI Midland the only grade to clear physical trades in the MOC window.

Market Activity

• Overall: 1,579 buy-side vs 1,167 sell-side (ratio 1.35:1) across 2,262 total transactions (1–29 Apr); ratio virtually unchanged from March's 1.36:1, but the composition shifted materially.
• CFD market dominated: GT0002219 (CFD vs M1 Cash) alone generated 1,624 transactions (801 bids, 499 offers, 324 trades), accounting for 71.8% of all activity.
• Physical grade bids were unilateral on three grades across the month: Oseberg FOB (11 bids, 0 offers), Troll FOB (8 bids, 0offers), Johan Sverdrup FOB (0 bids, 8 offers); Forties FOB ran 15 bids vs 2offers; no BFOET grade cleared a physical trade, with WTI Midland the only physical grade to clear (11 trades).

Key Participant Shifts in April

• Mercuria Energy Trading: #4 seller in March (143trades) → #2 buyer in April (224 trades); having offloaded length into the March rally, Mercuria re-entered on the buy side as the market pulled back mid-April.
• PetroIneos Trading: #2 buyer in March (219trades) → #5 seller in April (131 trades): reducing or monetising length in April.
• Vitol: #3 seller in March (176 trades) → absentfrom top 5 in April; length exhausted or view changed.
• Onyx Commodities: absent in March → #3 seller inApril (155 trades).
• Dare Global Limited led both sides for the second consecutive month (243 buys, 268 sells).

Price Action

• Dated Brent FOB (Prompt) opened April at $126.46/bbl and closed at $122.59/bbl on Apr 30, averaging $120.31/bbl vs March's $103.69/bbl (+$16.62/bbl, +16.0% MoM) and April 2025's $67.75/bbl (+$52.56/bbl, +77.6% YoY).
• BFOE Forward opened at $102.36/bbl while Dated Brent opened at $126.46/bbl - a $32.42/bbl spot-vs-forward gap driven by physical buyers bidding for any immediately available replacement barrels as Mideast Gulf supply remained stranded behind the Hormuz closure.
• Largest single-day decline: Apr 8, -$15.13/bbl ($111.09 to $95.96) on Trump's two-week ceasefire announcement; Apr 17 produced a second sharp drop to the $89.78/bbl monthly low when Iran's foreign minister declared the strait open, before Iran re-imposed controls within hours.

‍Cross-Market Dynamics

• Troll ($129.13/bbl) and Oseberg ($128.43/bbl) closed Apr 30 at the top of the barrel.
• Ekofisk vs Johan Sverdrup spread (GX0016421) flipped from -$0.99/bbl (March avg) to +$2.29/bbl (April avg). Demand for medium Johan Sverdrup crude was particularly firm in March, while the two grades reverted to their usual relationship in March.
• WTI Midland vs Forties (GX0016422) averaged -$3.45/bbl in April vs -$0.54/bbl in March, as the sweet grade eased against its sour counterpart

Cross-Regional Dynamics

• Prompt squeeze at open: the Dated vs M2 spread of $32.42/bbl on Apr 1 is the clearest expression of the replacement-barrel scramble with buyers paying a record premium for spot delivery vs paper pricing for later delivery.
• BFOE M1 vs M3 held $14.68/bbl at month-end (vs $12.00/bbl March close). The forward structure retained strong backwardation.
• CFD W1 vs BFOE M1 opened at +$23.60/bbl and closed at +$9.45/bbl - the compression mirrors Dated vs M2 and reflects partial easing of the prompt panic by month-end without resolution to pre-crisis levels.
• Front months repriced faster than deferred months, the Dated vs M2 averaged $24.13/bbl (vs $8.75/bbl in March), and the CFD strip remained elevated; the market closed April pricing acute prompt scarcity without pricing resolution into the back end.

Price Volatility

• April CV of 7.85–10.00% represents a partial normalisation from March's 13.30–15.33% peak but remains 4–5x the pre-crisis baseline of 1.5–2.0% (Nov–Dec 2025); the bi-directional move structure (prompt squeeze opening, two 10–15% single-session drops, sustained recovery) is the source.
• WTI Midland was the most volatile grade (CV 10.00%), reflecting greater number of bids and offersin the physical window, while Johan Sverdrup was the most stable (CV 7.85%), withfewer competitive signals from participants to set the price.
• Risk models calibrated to the pre-crisis 1.5–2.0% CV baseline are understating current volatility by 4–5x; until confirmed sustained flows resume through the strait, elevated CV should be treated as the baseline for position sizing and margin calls.

Something to Watch

• Dated Brent vs BFOE M2 closed April at $13.06/bbl, off the $32.42/bbl open but still elevated vs the pre-crisis sub-$2/bbl norm.
• Why it matters: sustained compression below $5/bbl signals that prompt physical supply is easing and replacement-barrel competition abating; re-widening above $25/bbl signals renewed acute prompt scramble and likely another flat-price spike.
• What to monitor: daily Dated vs M2 spread; confirmed commercial ship transits through the strait; Pentagon mine-clearance timeline (6-month estimate stated Apr 21; any acceleration is bullish for resolution)

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 April 2026