April Recap - European Gasoline

Eurobob Oxy E5 averaged $1,024/mt in April, up 10.1% MoM and 54% YoY, closing at $1,143/mt, driven by gains in crude, itself due to the Iran war. The gasoline crack vs Brent widened 66% to $20.47/bbl (Prompt avg), closing at $22.79/bbl; physical barges swung to an $18/mt premium over swaps after trading at a $21/mt discount in March. East-West arb inverted (Singapore 92 RON vs E5 closing at -$3.09/bbl) while RBOB-Eurobob widened 65%, as transatlantic and inter-regional competition for non-Gulf supply intensified. The month closed at its high after 11 consecutive up-days.

Market Activity

• 274 total transactions across gasoline and blendstock grades (4 bids, 7 offers, 263 trades).
• Totsa led buying with 193 transactions (Mar: 31 transactions, 3^rd-highest buyer), Varo dropped to 2^nd (20 deals, down from 73), Trafigura exited the top five.
• On the sell side, BP led (87, up from 15 in Mar), Exxon (58), Equinor (38), Shell (23); BP was in the top spot, compared to fifth spot in the previous month.

Price Action

• E5 opened $1,001.50/mt (1-Apr), closed $1,143.25/mt (30-Apr), avg $1,024.31/mt vs Mar $930.64/mt (+10.1% MoM, +54.1% YoY); 20 trading days.
• High $1,143.25/mt (30-Apr); low $941.50/mt (8-Apr); range $201.75/mt vs Mar's $340/mt.
• Largest single-day move: -$108/mt on 8-Apr (-10.3%) on the ceasefire announcement; recovery followed as the strait remained closed.

‍Cross-Market Dynamics

• E5 vs Brent crack (Prompt) averaged $20.47/bbl (Mar:$12.33/bbl), closing at $22.79/bbl; gasoline-specific tightness outpaced crude through month-end.
• E5 vs Naphtha widened to $153/mt avg (Mar: $135/mt),close $178/mt; end-user motor fuel demand pull over petchem-grade.
• MTBE NWE rose only 1.9% MoM vs E5's 10.1%; oxygenate blending economics compressed.
• 98 RON NWE led grades at +10.3% MoM; 95 CIF NWE +8.2%;MED FOB +8.8%; E5 vs Swaps swung from -$20.72/mt (Mar) to +$18.09/mt (Apr avg),a $39/mt physical premium flip.

Cross-Regional Dynamics

• Singapore 92 RON vs E5 (Month) averaged -$0.32/bbl (Mar: +$4.31/bbl), closing at -$3.09/bbl; arb closure eliminated traditional eastbound flow.
• RBOB vs E5 (Month) widened to $0.37/gal avg (Mar: $0.22/gal), close $0.45/gal; US seasonal demand compounded crude-driven rally.
• MED 95 vs E5 widened to +$10.95/mt (Mar: +$4.72/mt); Med refineries more exposed to Gulf crude disruption.

Curve Structure

• M1 gained$179.75/mt vs M6 +$118.50/mt; front rallied 1.5x harder than the deferred, consistent with bull steepening.
• M1-M2 narrowed on the ceasefire-driven selloff while M1-M6 widened; the market does not expect the strait reopening to resolve prompt tightness quickly.

Price Volatility

• April CV of 4.4% normalised from March's 12.0% spike but remains above the pre-conflict 3.0% baseline.
• Crack spread CV (13.9%) remains elevated; hedging models should not yet revert to pre-conflict parameters.

Something to Watch

• Strait of Hormuz resolution timeline:
  
  • Observation: strait effectively closed as of 30-Apr with US counter-blockade in place; Iran reimposed restrictions despite ceasefire.
  • Why it matters: confirmed reopening unwinds the physical premium and triggers 15-20%flat price retracement; sustained closure past mid-May reprices the back curve structurally.
  • What to monitor: US-Iran negotiation deadline; daily strait transit counts; IEA strategic reserve release signals.
• E5 vs Swaps as the physical scarcity gauge:
  
  • Observation: premium narrowed intra-month from +$27.75 to +$6.00 while the strait remained closed.
  • Why it matters: re-widening above +$25/mt signals intensifying prompt scarcity; compression below zero signals the physical premium is exhausted and paper has caught up.
  • What to monitor: weekly E5 vs Swaps; ARA inventory data.
• Gasoline crack at cycle highs:
  
  • Observation: E5 vs Brent closed at $22.79/bbl, widening while flat price also rose.
  • Why it matters: crack expansion alongside flat price rally indicates gasoline tightening independently of crude; compression below $18/bbl signals gasoline-specific tightness is easing.
  • What to monitor: weekly E5 vs Brent crack; European refinery utilization.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 April 2026