Singapore's jet fuel prices have rocketed to 13-month highs over gasoil amid a seasonal surge in demand for jet and looser supplies for gasoil. The spread between jet fuel and gasoil, also known as the regrade, was assessed by General Index (GX) at US$2.158/bbl on 3rd Dec 2025, the highest level since 28th Oct 2024.
A Mid-November Turning Point
The surge in regrade which started on 10th Nov, could be attributed to a more balanced gasoil market compared to jet, even as cracks for both oil products began to decline past 19th November. Gasoil and jet cracks were at their highest levels in two years up until 19th November, climbing to US$34.89/bbl and US$35.29/bbl respectively, amid persistent geopolitical volatility surrounding Ukrainian drone attacks and disruption to Indian refinery runs with the recent sanctions on Russian oil firms.
Easing concerns over tight supply since then may have provided some relief, allowing for softer prices. Between 19th November and 3rd December, gasoil cracks against Dubai crude have declined by US$8.18/bbl while jet fuel cracks declined by US$3.62/bbl over the same period. The more than double rate of decline for gasoil cracks underpins jet’s current strength over gasoil, a historical anomaly, since the regrade has hovered in the negatives for the most part of 2025.
Fundamentals at Play: Supply Returns, but Demand Differs
The difference in fortunes for outright jet and gasoil prices could lie in current fundamentals as Asian refineries return from maintenance and more middle distillates exports are expected from China while middle distillate cracks hold at historical highs. While additional jet supplies are expected to be soaked up by a seasonal pickup in air travel, the demand outlook for diesel remains uncertain.
