Brent crude prices have jumped 17.45%, while prompt Dubai prices have increased 16.74%. WTI futures have risen 11.4% to $75.07/bbl. However, physical prices have responded more dramatically, with WTI Midland at $75.88 per barrel, up 21 percent, or $13 per barrel since Feb. 17.
That said, light sweet crude is the laggard in this rally. The geopolitical risk premium is concentrating in sour grades, where Iranian displacement is most direct. Gulf of Mexico sours and Canadian heavy are driving the move.
- Mars differential (diff) moved from -$0.87 to +$4.50 per barrel, a $5.37 increase in 11 sessions, while the SGC diff rose from -$2.01 to +$2.58, a $4.59 move. Both Gulf of Mexico sour grades have flipped to premiums over light sweet, a configuration that is structurally abnormal for this stage of the spring refinery turnaround cycle, when sour differentials typically weaken.
- WCS vs WTI East Houston narrowed from -$16.80 to -$15.99, with an intraperiod tight of -$14.81 on Mar. 2. Canadian heavy is participating in the rally, but tariff risk is limiting the tightening relative to Gulf of Mexico sour grades.
- Trade volumes have been highest in USGC offshore grades, with Mars and Southern Green Canyon trade volumes tripling relative to activity before the conflict began.
- Compared to the 12-Day War (June 2025), WTI rose 6.3% on the first post-conflict trading day, modestly below the 7% spike on June 12 at the outset of that conflict, though US coastal grades posted larger gains than during the 12-Day War's initial phase.
- Forward structure: Backwardation in the WTI futures forward curve has increased since February 27, with prompt prices rising relative to deferred months, steepening the downward slope of the curve.
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