April Recap - North American Crude

WTI Midland averaged $100.99/bbl in April, +9.1% MoM and +58% YoY, as a closed Strait of Hormuz pulled Asian and European refiners into US light sweet markets as replacement supply. Shut-in Middle East barrels are medium-heavy, but US replacement is light sweet, so WTI Midland, WTL and MEH gained $8-9/bbl MoM. The month’s price action was V-shaped: a $20.14 single-day collapse on 8 April purported ceasefire, low of $85.76, then a rally to $108.09 close April tensions resumed.

Market Authority

Across the four primary NA crude markets (WTL Midland, WTI Midland, WCS Houston, WCS Cushing), 79 trades / 747k bbls in April vs 88 / 311k bbls March; total volume up 2.4x MoM and average clip size more than doubled (53k vs 22k bbls), consistent with bigger producer buying into the rally.
WTL Midland was the working light-sweet window (69 of 79 trades, 297k bbls); WCS Houston drove the volume jump (5 trades @ 441kbbls vs 1 @ 100k March), Canadian heavy moving to the coastal export point even as WCS Cushing flat price barely lifted.
- WCS Houston drove the volume jump (5 trades @441k bbls vs 1 @ 100k March), in Canadian heavy moving to the coastal exportpoint as WCS Cushing differentials were stable.

Price Action

$100.99/bbl April avg vs $92.54 in March (+9.1% MoM), $63.87 April 2025 (+58% YoY); from February's $65.13, +55% YoY.
WTI Midland opened April at $103.73, closed the month at $108.09; high $117.04 on 7 April, low $85.76 on 17 April.
- $31.28 price range was 7x the Nov-Feb average.
Single-day drop of $20.14/bbl on 8 April on ceasefire talk; reversed within ten sessions as Hormuz reclosed.

WTI April Price Movements | General Index — Source: GX Go

Cross-Market Dynamics

Hormuz shut-ins are medium-heavy grades Asian refiners cannot easily switch out of; US replacement is light sweet, so the bid landed on light. MoM: WTI Midland +$8.45, EH +$9.07, WTL +$9.19; WCS +$0.34.
WCS-WTI Midland diff (GX0011364) widened from -$6.82 to -$10.20 average, hitting -$12.63 on 17 April; outright reached -$27.48 on 7 April with WTI at $117.04 vs WCS at $89.56.
MEH-Midland averaged +$1.42, peaking at +$3.24 on 2 April on USGC export pull, compressing to +$0.78 month-end.

Cross-Regional Dynamics

US crude exports surged above 5 mb/d in April per EIA (total April energy exports ~12.9 mb/d, a record); Houston-Asia and Houston-Europe routes ran at record loadings as US light sweet became the replacement barrel for lost Middle East flows.

Curve Structure

WTI Futures M1 closed April at $105.07 (+$3.69 over 21 sessions); M1-M2 spread closed at +$5.93 (88th percentile of last 90 trading days, prompt backwardation historically strong); M1-M12 at +$30.42, with the curve in steep backwardation through the strip.
All four key calendar spreads compressed MoM (M1-M2 -$2.29, M1-M3 -$3.25, M1-M6 -$3.80, M1-M12 -$0.79); the front compressed harder than the back, classic bull-flattening of an extremely backwardated curve as the prompt rallied less than the deferred caught up.
- Regime shift from BACK-END REPRICING (11 of 20 sessions) → MIXED SIGNALS (Day 1); deferred tenors had been doing the work all month, but the front took over late.
Brent-WTI spread closed April at +$17.52 with WTI tightening Arb by $8.82 over 21 sessions, the WTI relative-strength move reflects US light sweet absorbing replacement-buyer pull. Large weekly Cushing draw reported by EIA on 29 April was confirmation that anticipated tightness has started to arrive in US crude stocks.

Price Volatility

April CV (8.15%) followed March's 10.10% peak; Nov-Feb avg ~2.5%, January's 4.14% the prior high.
WCS Cushing CV eased to 6.32% (vs 9.64% March),the only product moderating MoM, consistent with WCS locked out of the rally.
Models calibrated to 2-3% CV underestimate current risk 3-4x; 8-10% is the planning baseline until Hormuz resumes.

WTI Midland MoM Price | General Index — Source: GX Go

Something to Watch

WCS Cushing-WTI Midland diff (grade-mix indicator): -$10.20 April avg, low -$12.63; past -$12 confirms light-sweet-only pull, toward -$5 signals Hormuz reopening or Saudi/UAE bypass.
Hormuz transit (binary catalyst): April flows ~3.8 mb/d vs ~20 mb/d pre-conflict per IEA; sustained reopening triggers 20-30% retracement in WTI light grades, escalation lifts WTI past $120. Monitor next EIA STEO.

Note: All figures, prices and market activity referenced in this report are based on the period 1–30 April 2026